7.26eth

1. Current Market Snapshot
1. Price Range
• 24h range: 3563–3758 USDT
• This Friday (7-25), ETH options expire, with the maximum pain point at 2800 USDT, Put/Call 0.87, and shorts still accounting for 3–4%.
• Large orders in dark pools show signs of long-term accumulation in the range of 2350–2450, indicating that institutions do not believe that above 3600 is an absolute high.
2. Technical Analysis
• 4h MACD: The histogram has shortened negatively but has not yet crossed over; momentum is neutral but slightly bullish.
• 4h K-line: After a large bearish candle in yesterday's morning session, two consecutive bullish candles with increased volume were formed in the afternoon session, indicating a short-term "deep pullback rebound" rhythm;
• Key Levels: Resistance 3755–3790, Support 3563/3520/3478.
3. Capital and Sentiment
• Spot ETF has a net inflow of 4.2 billion dollars this year, continuing to provide support;
• Twitter/Reddit mainstream sentiment: bullish, but concerned about a "false breakout" pullback.
2. The "Extreme" Strategy for 100x Contracts (Suitable for High-Risk Players Only)
1. Direction: Take long positions in line with short-term trends, capturing the extension of rebounds.
2. Entering:
• First order 3563–3587 (yesterday's low point resonating with previous low);
• Second order 3478–3520 (if a quick spike occurs).
3. Stop Loss: Opening price -1.0% ≈ 35–36 USDT, corresponding liquidation price is about 1% away from the opening price, requires isolated margin + forced liquidation protection.
4. Take profit:
• First target 3755 (yesterday's high),
• Second target 3830 (high from 7 months ago),
• Reduce positions in batches, with the remaining 20% position pushing for protection at the psychological barrier of 4000.
5. Leverage Usage Tips:
• Use "ladder positions" — only allocate 20% of funds at each price level to avoid full exposure at once;
• Set up automatic position reduction (ADL) trigger alerts to prevent extreme spikes in the platform.
3. Risks and Countermeasures
1. At 100x leverage, a 1% price reversal will trigger a liquidation, so be sure to use isolated margin and small positions.
2. Low liquidity on weekends and high pinning frequency, set the network fee slippage tolerance to 5–10 USDT.
3. If 3520 is effectively broken, it indicates a failed rebound. Immediately stop loss on all positions and short to see 3400.
In a nutshell
Aggressive long position: enter in batches at 3563–3587, stop loss at 3520, take profit in batches at 3755/3830. Under 100x leverage, be sure to use "small position + incremental position + strict stop loss"; otherwise, it is very easy to face liquidation.
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