Powell releases dovish signals, geopolitical risks ease, crypto market continues to pump

Market Observation

The macro environment is showing a positive shift. The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran significantly eases geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, while crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly dipped below $3300. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated during a congressional hearing that while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, more data is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on policy direction. He mentioned that if inflation pressure is controlled, there would be a "sooner rather than later" rate cut, but the current strong economy does not require hasty action, while also noting that uncertainty around tariffs is the main reason for delaying a rate cut.

This statement was interpreted by the market as a dovish tendency, coupled with the easing of geopolitical risks, driving a broad rise in US stocks. The Nasdaq 100 reached an all-time high, while the Dow Jones surged by 500 points in a single day, with US Treasury yields and the dollar declining in sync. Notably, Powell reiterated the independence of monetary policy, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data. Meanwhile, industry observations show that US shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional mechanisms for regulating energy price fluctuations.

In terms of regulation, a certain trading platform is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, lower thresholds, lower costs, and 24/7 trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading sector, further blurring the lines between traditional brokerages and crypto platforms, challenging the status of traditional internet brokerages. Furthermore, since the new management took office at the Securities and Exchange Commission, there has been a shift in regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry, not only withdrawing lawsuits against several crypto companies but also establishing a crypto task force to develop regulations for digital assets. Analysts believe that the U.S. may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading.

Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under favorable macro conditions, but its performance is relatively restrained. Research institutions point out that the 13% rise in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in inflows, reflecting market caution towards structural changes. According to analysts, the concentration of chips within 5% of the current Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. They indicate that once concentration breaks 15%, the market may experience significant volatility. From a technical analysis perspective, multiple analysts have given similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend, suggesting that the price may consolidate at current levels. If it breaks $107,000, it could aim for $110,000; otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000.

On the Ethereum front, a trading platform experienced a large-scale fund withdrawal on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Some analysts point out that as the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant rise, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, showing potential for catch-up. However, some analysts hold an opposing view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break through the $3,000 mark for over 20 weeks, which has damaged market confidence and faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return above the $3,000 level in the short term.

In the market, some emerging tokens quickly attract funding attention due to specific concepts or memes, but most subsequently experience a decline. Meanwhile, the traditional financial sector is accelerating its layout in the encryption field, with a US stock company announcing the acquisition of BNB as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, driving the stock price to surge by 150% in a single day. The Hong Kong market also saw breakthrough developments, as a Chinese-funded brokerage obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage to provide mainstream coin trading services, stimulating its Hong Kong stock price to reach a maximum intraday increase of over 100%.

Key Data

As of June 25, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), daily spot trading volume of $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751
• Sector rise and fall: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $187 million.

ETF Flow

As of June 24:

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 days)
• Ethereum ETF: +7123.79 million USD

Today's Outlook

• The H contract and Alpha trading on a certain trading platform are scheduled to open on June 25 at 17:30 and 17:00 respectively.
• The Kroma L2 network will be shut down on June 26, and $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum.
• A trading platform will launch Sahara AI on June 26 (SAHARA)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the semiannual monetary policy report (June 25 at 22:00)
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens in the near future, including Venom, AltLayer, IOTA, Velo, Blast, and Undeads Games.

Hot News

• A large investor has increased their short position in ETH again early in the morning, with the current position valued at 122 million dollars.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 12,207 ETH with an investment of $30.67 million, raising its total holdings to 188,478 ETH.
• A certain US stock company announced a private placement of $500 million in convertible notes for BNB strategic reserves, with the stock price rising over 150%.
• ProCap spent $387 million to acquire 3,724 Bitcoins.
• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate $10 million for the purchase of Bitcoin.
• Trump once again called for interest rate cuts of at least 2 to 3 percentage points.
• Celestia co-founder stated that it has over $100 million in capital reserves, sufficient to support operations for more than 6 years.