Prophet model and Bitcoin price prediction

Prophet is an open-source time series forecasting tool developed by Facebook that combines traditional decomposition methods with machine learning, suitable for analyzing data with trends and seasonality. By modeling historical prices and external events (such as halving and ETF launches), Prophet can provide relatively accurate Bitcoin price predictions. Based on the backtesting of Gate data over the past year, the Bitcoin price is expected to be around 110,000 USD by the end of 2025, with specific numbers fluctuating due to differing data.

Key factors affecting Bitcoin price

The price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, among which the halving effect is particularly crucial. History shows that prices often rise significantly within 12 months after a halving. The continued involvement of institutional investors, especially with the proliferation of ETFs, injects substantial capital into the market, enhancing Bitcoin’s mainstream status. Additionally, a more relaxed regulatory environment and macroeconomic changes (such as rising inflation) also drive the demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Expert Opinion Summary

Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, emphasizing the driving effect of halving and ETFs. VanEck analysts are optimistic about a potential pullback of 30% after an initial surge to $180,000 at the beginning of the year. Venture capitalist Tim Draper and analyst Tom Lee both believe Bitcoin is likely to break through $250,000, primarily due to its scarcity and decentralized nature.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Comprehensive model predictions and expert opinions suggest that Bitcoin has strong growth potential in 2025, but market volatility remains significant. Investors should closely monitor the halving process, institutional trends, and regulatory policies, and cautiously formulate investment strategies to address uncertainties and seize opportunities.