2025 Crypto Market Outlook: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced a bull market cycle. After the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the price of BTC has reached new highs repeatedly, driving the altcoin market. Currently, the price of BTC is hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when BTC reaches a peak. The first round was when BTC approached $69,000 but did not break through, and the next round may be a push towards $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market is expected to happen in the first quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin is likely to stabilize at $100,000. However, the situation from the second and third quarters of 2024 may also reoccur in the coming months. Here are four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: BTC and altcoins are generally rising. A bullish trend is expected throughout 2025, replicating the comprehensive upward trend of the past two months with a probability of 30-40%.

Strategy: Choose quality altcoins to buy on dips.

Scenario 2: BTC rises, and some altcoins rise. Similar to the volatile market in 2024, but overall more optimistic with a 50-60% probability.

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for potential stocks.

Scenario 3: BTC rises, altcoins generally decline ( with a probability of 20-30% ).

Strategy: Reduce holdings in altcoins, consider liquidating those with poor long-term performance.

Scenario 4: BTC and altcoins are generally declining. The market has peaked with a probability of 10-20%.(.

Due to favorable macro conditions, a new historical high for BTC may be breached sooner than 2024. The market's perspective on Bitcoin has changed, and the new regime has also brought attention to digital assets. These factors will drive BTC to remain strong in 2025.

The total market value of altcoins may repeat the trend of 2024, with a historical high in the first quarter and reaching a cyclical peak in the fourth quarter. The key lies in selection and timing. While 2025 looks promising, the timing of the rise is still uncertain. In the absence of catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant declines.

As long as the cycle has not ended, maintain a bullish strategy. There will not be extreme situations like the summer of 2024 in 2025, but there may be a stable period similar to the current one.

Conclusion:

• The BTC increase will exceed that of 2024.
• The overall rise of altcoins, but volatility may be less than in 2024.

![Year-End Series: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions for the 2025 Market Trend])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f884553a5e863e9a4ac8e3416c62f400.webp(

) risk factors

Cycle Top Currently, we are still far from the peak of the cycle, but continuous evaluation is necessary. The peak is not a single event, but a range that approaches gradually.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan After the new president takes office, their attitude towards the reserve plan will be closely watched. Completely ignoring it would be a negative signal, but it is more likely to be postponed or not implemented. In the long run, it is still positive for Bitcoin.

Supply Risk The risk of a large concentration of Bitcoin being released always exists and requires close attention. If handled properly, it could also become a buying opportunity.

Macroeconomic risk The expected rate cut is limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity improvement will benefit digital assets. The main risk is that a rebound in inflation could lead to rate hikes.

( Investment Advice

1. AI The next wave of AI may be coming soon. Focus on application technology, Swarms, gaming, and consumer AI. Recommended ALCH, Griffain, Digimon, Ai16z, etc.

2. DeFi DeFi is still an important narrative, but investment difficulty is high. Recommended are AAVE, ENA, Morpho, Euler, USUAL, followed by stablecoins and payment-related tokens.

3. L1 L1 may rise again. Recommended SUI, Hype, followed by Abstract.

4. NFT and Game Tokens Focus on NFT tokens and upcoming token game projects. Recommended are Pengu, Anime, Spellborne, Treeverse, etc.

5. Other Tracks

• Data Tokens: Kaito, Arkm
• Meme:PEPE
• DePIN: PEAQ, HNT
• Ordinals
• Traditional DeFi: CRV, CVX

) 11 Predictions for 2025

1. A major company will enter the DePIN field through acquisition.
2. The market share of a certain trading platform will surpass that of a leading exchange.
3. Metaverse tokens regain attention with the development of VR
4. ICOs are becoming popular again
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. SUI reached a two-digit dollar price
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more staking and yield aggregation products.
8. Famous artists use NFTs and tokens to operate fans
9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000
10. More L1 project founders resign
11. A certain L2 lost in competition with L1 and was replaced by other L1s. A certain public chain continues to lead.