Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, when will alts rebound?

Bitcoin recently reached a historical high of $123,000, drawing attention to the timing of the rebound of alts in the market. By analyzing the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we can discover some interesting patterns.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the price discovery phase, but the altcoin market momentum is relatively stagnant, and most large-cap coins have not shown obvious signs of starting. Let's explore the possible scenarios after the market breakout.

Since mid-2023, every time Bitcoin has a breakout, it has triggered a collective rebound of alts:

• 30,000 to 44,000 USD
• $45,000 to $71,000
• 71,000 to 105,000 USD

After each breakout, alts usually experience a 3-5 week explosion window. Subsequently, Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, with its market dominance recovering, leading to the earlier gains of alts being eroded.

The current market situation is similar to historical patterns: after Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of $107,000, it has risen to $123,000 and may continue to challenge the $150,000 mark. If historical trends hold, we may now be at the starting point of a new altcoin rally.

However, it is important to note that this is not a half-year altcoin frenzy, but more like a short-term sprint. Bitcoin's market dominance has not yet broken through key levels, so this is not a full-fledged altcoin season. If Bitcoin's dominance stops rising, alts still have room for growth, similar to the last two market cycles.

The trends of mainstream coins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have shown significant divergence. Ethereum lagged far behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but each subsequent rebound low has been gradually rising. Solana initially performed strongly, but its momentum has also recently approached stagnation. XRP initially showed weakness but experienced explosive growth after certain political events last year.

Signs of capital rotation emerging

Currently, payment tokens are leading the way, including XRP, XLM, HBAR, IOTA, ALGO, XDC, etc. "Bank tokens" that comply with the ISO20022 standard are gaining funding favor.

Some large-cap coins that have not yet launched are worth paying attention to:

• BNB: The exchange rate against BTC is close to the historical cycle low.
• LINK: Although it continues to decline, the fundamentals remain strong.
• ADA: is forming a long-term double bottom pattern
• TRX: Ready to take off
• DOGE: Often explodes during Bitcoin breakout cycles.

These may become core rotation targets.

If Solana starts to gain funding favor, its ecosystem tokens are also worth paying attention to. BONK has surged by 89%, and PENGU has become a hot topic on social media. Other Layer 1 public chains like Sui, Aptos, and AVAX (which has not launched since November 2023) may also see a relay market.

TAO and PEPE performed well in 2023:

• TAO: Increased 14 times in 5 months
• PEPE: 6.6 times increase in BTC within 3 months

They exhibit strong narrative power when Bitcoin rises, and if new hot narratives emerge, investors need to stay sharp.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

• Focus on blue-chip coins
• Looking for coins that have not yet launched
• Focus on strong narratives when leading projects launch.
• Temporarily avoid small-cap coins to control risk

Capital rotation is key; do not blindly chase the rise. Alts may welcome a strong cycle lasting 1 to 2 months, but history reminds us to take profits in a timely manner to avoid excessive greed.

If Bitcoin breaks through $150,000, the top 20 coins by market capitalization may collectively rise, and some assets may experience significant rebound trends. It is recommended to operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon those that are underperforming.

Maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude and avoid falling into blind enthusiasm. Closely monitor changes in Bitcoin's market dominance and the activity of BTC trading pairs. Although the current situation is not as frenzied as the cycles of 2017 or 2021, it is still a worthwhile investment window. Small-cap coins will eventually see rotation, but patience is required to wait for the right opportunity.