Ethereum price breaks new highs, market sentiment diverges

On June 10, 2025, the price of Ethereum surpassed $2,827, reaching a new high in 15 weeks. Behind this price movement lies a potential liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions. In this seemingly coincidental market situation, the trading patterns of a mysterious large player have become a key clue to interpreting market sentiment.

According to on-chain data, a certain anonymous address completed two precise operations within 44 days:

• April 27: Purchased 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830, totaling $54.9 million;
• May 27: Sold an equivalent amount of ETH at a price of $2,621, earning $23.73 million, with a return of 43%;
• June 10: Sold 30,000 ETH for $82.76 million, locked in a profit of $7.3 million, with total profits of $31 million.

This kind of operation is not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest has first broken through the $40 billion mark, and the market leverage ratio is approaching a critical point. The current liquidity distribution shows a subtle balance: there is a $2 billion long liquidation risk around $2,600, while there is an $1.8 billion short liquidation risk above $2,900. This confrontation between long and short positions is akin to the CDO market during a financial crisis, where any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain reaction.

Behind the price increase, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. In the second quarter, independent active addresses surged by 70%, reaching a peak of 16.4 million on June 10. Among them, the Base network accounted for 72.81% (11.29 million addresses), far exceeding the Ethereum mainnet's 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This model of "satellite chains nourishing the mainnet" is completely different from the early development logic of DeFi.

Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a TVL of $66 billion, its core revenue model has shown signs of concern:

• Transaction fees have significantly decreased: In the past 30 days, network transaction fees were only $43.3 million, a 90% decrease compared to before the upgrade;
• Staking returns are unsatisfactory: the annualized yield continues to languish at 3.12%, lower than other competitors;
• Regulatory pressure: Scrutiny of ETH staking has led to a net outflow of $369 million from spot ETFs for 8 consecutive days, undermining institutional confidence.

On-chain data shows that the proportion of addresses holding ETH for the long term has decreased from 63% to 55%, while the selling volume of short-term holders has increased by 47%. This reflects that the technological upgrades have not effectively translated into profits for holders, and the prosperity of the ecosystem has instead become a driver of value dilution.

In the futures market, the open interest exceeding $40 billion indicates potential high volatility. Clearing data shows:

• There is a risk of $2 billion in long liquidations in the range of $2,600-$2,665.
• $2,900 and above, $1.8 billion in short positions are facing liquidation;
• Institutional Participation: The open interest in Ethereum futures accounts for 9%, lower than Bitcoin futures at 24%, indicating that traditional capital remains cautious.

From a technical perspective, the current market shows the following characteristics:

• The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level in recent times, indicating a possible breakout;
• Weekly indicators show a contradiction: prices remain above the key moving average, but the momentum indicators show insufficient upward momentum.
• $2,800 has become a key price level, a breakout could open the range of $3,200-$3,500, otherwise it may retreat to $2,500.

On a macro level, changes in US-Russia relations and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy constitute uncertain factors. The market has high expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025; if the actual situation deviates, the cryptocurrency market may be impacted. At the same time, whether the narrative of Real World Assets (RWA) can materialize in the third quarter will also affect the market capitalization performance of Ethereum.

Ethereum is facing multiple challenges and opportunities:

• Consider adjusting the staking mechanism through proposals to optimize liquidity;
• Explore Layer 2 revenue distribution models to solve the problem of "ecological prosperity and low mainnet revenue."
• Regulatory progress may bring short-term benefits, affecting circulation.

Market analysts believe that after breaking through $2,800, Ethereum may start a new round of increases. However, the current market is still mainly driven by leverage, and the liquidation of $1.8 billion in short positions could become a critical turning point. Future trends will verify who can truly grasp the market trend and who may face risks.