DePIN Project: A New Wave of Speculation in the Web3 World or Real Innovation?

In recent years, the Web3 field has been constantly showcasing the old routine of "economic incentives + scenario packaging." During the last wave of the GameFi craze, concepts like "play-to-earn" and "move-to-earn" became hot topics. However, although these projects were incredibly popular in the short term, they failed to find a sustainable business model, ultimately leading to drastic fluctuations in token prices, user losses, and ecosystem collapse.

Today, the rise of the DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) concept has sparked renewed discussions in the Web3 community. Compared to GameFi, the application scenarios of DePIN seem to be more extensive: charging, calling, installing sockets, driving, watching advertisements, and even drinking water could become ways to earn tokens. This idea that "everything can be DePIN" appears to have more imaginative potential than GameFi at first glance. After all, compared to the virtual gaming world, the electricity, communication, transportation, and energy in real life seem to have more "practical value."

However, when we delve deeper into the actual implementation of these projects and their economic models, we find some concerning phenomena: currently, over 60% of device suppliers in the DePIN market come from the same region, and the selling price of these devices is often 30-50 times the wholesale price. Most hardware investors are facing huge losses, and the DePIN tokens they purchased show almost no signs of rebound. Investors can only watch their assets shrink, waiting in vain for the "ecological landing" and "next round of airdrops." This phenomenon raises doubts about whether this is truly an innovation in infrastructure or just another round of hardware scams dressed in new clothes.

Project Review: The Blood and Tears Lessons of Investors

Helium: From Scarcity to Neglect

Helium was once a star project in the DePIN field, with its Helium Hotspot devices building a decentralized LoRaWAN network. It later partnered with well-known telecom companies to launch mobile communication services, and the low-priced packages attracted a large number of users in a short period of time.

However, the true story of Helium devices is a typical case of "retail investor harvesting": hotspot miners that once cost tens of dollars were inflated to $2500 each, claiming to recoup the investment in three days. But the reality is harsh: due to nodes being officially banned in certain areas, many investors suffered heavy losses, and the miners became scrap metal, while the token prices plummeted, leaving miners with nothing. The once-promised dream of "mining equals financial freedom" has now been shattered.

Hivemapper: High-priced cameras "mining" are hard to break even.

Hivemapper has launched a dashcam priced at $549, allowing users to upload geographic data while driving to earn token rewards. This "earn tokens while driving" model seems easier to get started with than traditional mining, but there are actually many issues:

• The stark contrast between expensive hardware prices and sluggish token prices results in a long payback period.
• The quality and update frequency of the map data are questionable, and it remains to be seen whether a network comparable to mainstream map services can truly be built.
• Its map network mainly covers developed countries, with almost no practical application scenarios in the Asian market.

It is worth noting that Hivemapper has generated substantial revenue through hardware sales, but this reflects more of its "ability to sell equipment" rather than the healthy operation of the DePIN economic model.

Jambo: The Web3 Mobile Myth of the African Market

Jambo has entered the African market with a combination of "DePIN + Web3 wallet," launching a smartphone priced at only $99. It has reportedly sold over 400,000 units and activated more than 1.23 million wallet addresses. This achievement has largely been attributed to the price increase of a certain well-known token and the rapid development of the ecosystem.

However, this phone has many issues:

• The pre-installed DApps allow users to earn JAMBO tokens, but the liquidity and actual value of these tokens remain unclear.
• The closed loop of data sales is difficult to achieve due to a lack of support from large data buyers.
• The mobile ecosystem struggles to meet the long-term usage needs of Web3 users.

Ordz Game: Web3 Version of Retro Handheld Console

Ordz Game has launched the BitBoy handheld console that combines the "Play to Earn" concept. The high-priced version sold out immediately upon release, and over 2,000 units of the regular version have also been sold.

However, after careful analysis, it was found that:

• The gaming experience basically remains at the level of retro handheld console ROMs, lacking innovation.
• After the token ORDГ was transformed into GAMES, it still lacks liquidity and real value.
• Essentially a replica of the GameFi mining model, just with a different "handheld" shell.

Whether it can truly achieve long-term retention and return on investment for players remains in doubt.

TON Mobile: Expensive "Senior Phone" Experience

During the peak period of a well-known instant messaging platform and related blockchain projects, the TON phone was launched, priced at nearly $500. However, user feedback has generally been poor, with many believing that its performance specifications are far from those of mainstream phones in the same price range. Despite coming with a phone case and claiming to have "airdrop expectations," in reality:

• The quality of the airdrop is far inferior to similar projects.
• The user interface and experience lack uniqueness, and the phone itself has no innovations.
• The investment return cycle is long, and ecological construction is still in the conceptual stage.

Buyers are more motivated by the "hope of future airdrops", but the realization of this hope seems to be a long way off.

Starpower: Incomprehensibly High-Priced Smart Socket

Starpower claims to be a smart power DePIN project under a well-known public chain ecosystem, selling hardware such as smart sockets, car chargers, and batteries, and has received support from some well-known institutions. However, the pricing of its products is perplexing: a regular socket is priced at $100, while similar products on other platforms are priced at only about one-tenth of that.

In addition, there are many issues with this project:

• The company has a short establishment time and lacks technological transparency.
• The ecological incentive mechanism has not yet been clarified.
• Over-relying on "storytelling" to sell devices.

Looking back at the "mining machine futures scam" of similar projects in history, the development path of Starpower is concerning.

Energy DePIN projects: Idealized attempts away from market logic

Some projects like Glow and PowerLedger focus on idealized models such as carbon credit trading and P2P distributed energy trading. For example, Glow rewards green power generation from solar power plants through a dual-token mechanism. However, there are many challenges in practical operation:

• The buyers of carbon credits are not identified.
• There are doubts about the verification mechanism of the actual power generation of the power station.
• The payback period for the device is difficult to predict.

PowerLedger attempts to establish a P2P trading platform for the electricity market, but its platform token is nearing zero, and its core business model has yet to be validated. Although these projects have beautiful ideas, they still face significant challenges in terms of regulation and commercial implementation.

The Essence and Future Outlook of DePIN

DePIN is essentially an attempt to extend the Web3 "economic incentive model" into the real physical world. Theoretically, it has the potential to achieve the following goals:

• Decentralize real-world infrastructure (such as communication, electricity, maps, devices).
• Build large-scale user network effects.
• Achieve fair incentives and transparent governance through token design.

However, in the current stage of DePIN projects, the vast majority still rely on "selling hardware" to make profits:

• The token model with hardware attributes is often a combination of "air + bubble".
• The so-called "ecological empowerment" often relies on opinion leaders' packaging, concept hype, and airdrop expectations to attract new users.
• Many project teams are actually hardware suppliers, profiting from device sales through "supply chain + high profits" rather than truly building the network.

Successful DePIN projects require strong supply and demand model design, a transparent and sustainable incentive mechanism, and an in-depth understanding of the hardware and infrastructure sectors. The biggest bubble in the current DePIN market is that most projects are not solving real problems, but rather attracting investors through conceptual packaging. When hardware becomes a speculative tool, when device tokens turn into worthless "digital lottery tickets", and when all narratives revolve around airdrop expectations, DePIN is likely to become yet another Ponzi scheme in the Web3 world.

We look forward to seeing some DePIN projects in the near future that truly rely on practical use and real revenue for survival, rather than those that only depend on selling hardware or hype concepts. Only in this way can DePIN truly contribute to the development of Web3, rather than becoming just another speculative bubble.