The final battle of the Ripple case? SEC's closed-door meeting may vote to abandon the appeal, the fate of the XRP Spot ETF迎来关键周 | Bitcoin pullback waits for the White House report

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) held its fourth closed-door meeting of the year on July 24, and speculation is rising in the market regarding the fate of the Ripple legal case. The focus is on whether SEC commissioners will vote to decide to abandon the appeal against the ruling that 'the programmatic sales of XRP do not constitute securities.' If the appeal is withdrawn, it will end a legal battle that has lasted for four and a half years and may trigger a new wave of rise for XRP. Meanwhile, the launch of the XRP Spot ETF is hindered by the SEC's 'stay order,' with Commissioner Crenshaw's opposing stance and the August 15 court deadline being key variables. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is experiencing a pullback against the backdrop of the delayed release of the White House's crypto asset report, although the re-emergence of inflows into BTC Spot ETF may provide support.

SEC's closed-door meeting raises speculation, XRP appeal case reaches a critical moment As the SEC held its fourth closed-door meeting of the year on July 24 (Thursday), speculation around the final outcome of the legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC has sharply intensified. The backdrop of this meeting is that Judge Analisa Torres previously denied the joint motion for an "Indicative Ruling" regarding the settlement terms sought by both parties.

Appeal Withdrawal Vote Becomes Focus On the eve of the meeting, market expectations for the SEC to potentially vote to abandon the appeal have significantly increased. This appeal targets Judge Torres's historic ruling that "the programmatic sale of XRP does not constitute a securities offering." If the vote passes, it will completely end the long legal dispute that began in 2020 and could serve as a catalyst for an XRP price breakthrough. Driven by this expectation, the XRP price surged from a low of $2.9575 to as high as $3.2683 during Thursday's trading session, before pulling back.

SEC's "halt order" delays XRP Spot ETF process The further delay in the appeal withdrawal vote may also postpone the launch of the Spot ETF linked to XRP (such as the XRP-Spot ETF). Although the SEC recently approved the rule changes for Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund and Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund to convert to ETFs, the agency simultaneously issued "Stay Orders" to prevent issuers from officially launching these products.

The SEC claims that the issuance of the halt order is to establish a unified framework/listing standard for cryptocurrency spot ETFs. However, the REX-Osprey SOL ETF successfully launched on July 2 (just one day later than the originally scheduled listing date for the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF), suggesting that there may be other reasons behind the delay.

Analysis of Delay Reasons: Framework Establishment and Internal Resistance Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart proposed two potential reasons for the halt order:

1. It does take time to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for encryption ETFs.
2. A certain SEC official may be intentionally delaying the process (speculation suggests it could be Democratic Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw). This official may also influence the voting timeline for the Ripple appeal case.

Commissioner Crenshaw's opposing stance In May of this year, Commissioner Crenshaw cast a no vote on the first motion seeking a declaratory judgment for a settlement. She stated emphatically at the time:

"This settlement, along with the procedural dismantling of the SEC's encryption enforcement plan, has caused significant harm to the investing public and undermined the court's role in interpreting our securities laws. This is not a settlement proposal I can support." Although Crenshaw is also expected to vote against abandoning the appeal, his position is unlikely to change the final voting outcome.

The legal deadline is approaching, former SEC lawyer predicts the trend Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel commented on the possibility of the SEC voting to abandon the appeal:

"There is no doubt that the SEC will vote to deny the appeal against Ripple in the coming weeks, but no one outside the SEC knows the exact timing." However, the SEC may not have much time left. According to the requirements, the agency must submit a status report on the progress of the settlement to the federal appeals court by August 15. Therefore, the next closed-door meeting scheduled for August 14 is very likely to be the voting day for the appeal case.

Delay Risks and Market Competition Pressure Persistent delays may affect market demand for XRP, especially against the backdrop of recent continuous inflows of funds into BTC, ETH, and SOL spot ETFs. Since Judge Torres dismissed the joint motion:

• ETH surged to a 7-month high of $3,860 due to a surge in capital inflows.
• Since its launch, the SOL Spot ETF has recorded a net inflow of $105.4 million. XRP has risen 39% from July to now, although it is less than ETH's 47% increase, it has significantly outperformed SOL (+18%), reflecting the market's optimistic expectations regarding the SEC's abandonment of the appeal and the approval of the XRP spot ETF.

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal and ETF as Core Variables On July 24, XRP fell by 1.26%, closing at $3.1453 (previous day plummeted by 10.41%), underperforming the overall crypto market that day (a slight decrease of 0.28%, total market cap $3.81 trillion).

• Key Resistance: A breakout above $3.3 may pave the way to challenge the historical high of $3.6606 on July 18; holding this level would target the psychological level of $4.0.

• Key support: If it falls below $3.0, bears may test $2.8.

  

Bitcoin pullback awaits White House report, ETF inflows see a glimmer of hope As XRP continues its downward trend due to the SEC's silence, Bitcoin (BTC) is also retreating as investors await potential catalysts. The market had originally expected the "White House Crypto Assets Report" to be released on July 22, following rumors that the President's Working Group on Financial Markets might suggest the U.S. government increase its holdings of BTC as a strategic reserve asset, boosting market sentiment.

However, the public may have to wait until the end of July to see the full report. Notable crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed:

"The original deadline for the report was tomorrow (referring to after July 22), but a White House official told me it will be released to the public before the end of the month." Partial profit-taking and outflows from the BTC Spot ETF have led to prices dropping below $118,000. Despite the pullback, market intelligence platform Santiment points out that the outlook remains bullish: "Retail Bitcoin investors are currently quite quiet, rarely calling for higher price levels. Since hitting a historical high of $123,077 on July 14, the dust has settled and traders are showing signs of doubt. If this trend continues, it could lead to prices rapidly reaching new highs."

BTC Spot ETF Ends Capital Outflow On July 23, the US BTC spot ETF market recorded net outflows for the third consecutive day, exacerbating the decline of BTC. However, data from July 24 shows that the outflow trend has been reversed (according to Farside Investors):

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): Net inflow $106.8 million
• VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL): Net inflow $46.4 million
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB): Net inflow $29.8 million (As of the time of publication, BlackRock's IBIT data is pending), the known total net inflow has reached $194.2 million. The recovery of net inflow is expected to improve the supply and demand balance of BTC.

BTC Price Outlook: Legislative Process, Reserve Plans, and ETF Fund Flows Dominate BTC fell 0.35% on July 24, closing at $118,382 (a 0.99% drop the previous day). Its short-term trend depends on:

1. Progress on Cryptocurrency Legislation on Capitol Hill
2. Strategic Reserve Assets (SRA) Related Dynamics (Expectation of Increased BTC Holdings by the U.S. Government)
3. Spot ETF Fund Flow Trend

Potential Long and Short Scenario Analysis:

• Bearish scenario: Legislative obstacles + US government has not indicated an increase in BTC holdings + Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve + Continuous outflow of ETF. This combination may pull BTC towards $115,000, and even test the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) support.

• Bullish Scenario: Encryption bill receives bipartisan support + US government approves increased BTC holdings + Federal Reserve dovish signals + Continuous inflow into ETF. In this scenario, BTC is expected to attack the historical high of $122,057.

  

Core Observations for the Coming Week Investors need to closely track the key driving factors that will determine whether XRP and BTC can reach new highs again:

1. XRP Case Update: Pending vote on the SEC appeal case (focus on the meeting on August 14).
2. White House Encryption Report: Content and timeline regarding the U.S. government's recommendations for cryptocurrency assets (especially BTC) reserves.
3. Legislative Dynamics: The debate and voting process of cryptocurrency-related bills on Capitol Hill.
4. Federal Reserve Policy Signals: The hawkish/dovish tendencies conveyed by officials' speeches.
5. ETF Fund Flow: The trend of capital inflow/outflow is crucial to the supply and demand balance of BTC.