BTC falls below key support! Will it experience a double bottom or hit a new low? The key is to look at this indicator for whether the bottom is formed or not.

In the current market environment, trading has become extremely difficult. At this moment, perhaps the only thing we can do is to watch or wait. Is the BTC price at 49000 considered the bottom? To find the answer, I searched on Baidu for some characteristics of how to determine the bottom. Baidu's AI intelligent answer pointed out that some characteristics of the price appearing at the bottom include the trading volume reaching a new low, indicators showing severe divergence, exaggerated bearishness, and weak popularity. However, these characteristics all overlook an important question.

When the price of BTC is at the bottom, we will find that it first has a very large volume, which can be called the bottom volume. Secondly, it is highly likely to test the low position multiple times before it may reach the bottom. Throughout BTC's PA, we identify the technical features that release huge amounts. The recent surge was on August 5th, which released a huge amount. We use this volume bar as a standard and draw a horizontal line to observe. How many times did it hit this line in historical trends?

Obviously, there are three situations where this line, which has iconic volume, or the volume equivalent to August 5th, appears. One is when there is such a volume when BTC touches around $16,000; the other is when there is such a volume at 519, which is much larger than the volume released at the bottom of the market afterwards. However, before 519, there was actually a very large volume, which was 312, a landmark event.

312 currently appears to be the largest volume candlestick in history, belonging to a true volume level. 312 is also a major support level. Going back to 2018, when the price of BTC was falling, a wave of volume formed at this level.

When this area had a huge amount of selling, it was only a temporary low point, and there was a rebound later, but it did not create a new high. So although this area was not the bottom, with the huge selling volume, it was just a downward correction. Of course, in the end, it also fell below the trend line and welcomed a deeper decline. We also experienced this at that time.

Let's take a look at the recent performances of BTC's price. Take a look at when it was at 519, this volume bar is second only to the volume bar at 312. At 519, it dropped from the top of $60,000 to $30,000. After the price of BTC first touched $29,000, there were multiple upward rebounds.

*After the Rebound, it did not break out of the bottom area, but repeatedly tested the $29,000 position. The second test, it slightly broke through $29,000, reaching $28,800. So this place was pierced a little. Including the third time, reaching $30,000. So in this stage, it touched near $29,000 three times again. The last time, it ushered in an engulfing Candlestick combination to pull up.

This pump, which is the second half of what we commonly call the Bull Market, lasts for a considerable period of time. In this phase, the sideways consolidation period is also not short. It took us a total of 65 days, or two months, to experience the first fall, the second fall, and the third fall before finally ending. So, the sideways movement lasted for two months, testing three times, and finally concluding.

Let's take another look at the price of Bitcoin when it reached the position of $16,000. At this point, there was also an increase in volume. This volume may be the first bottom of BTC before the start of this bull run. At this point, the BTC price tested it twice, or it can also be said three times.

The second time, the fall broke the low of the first time, pierced a little, and fell several tens of dollars more. Later, it also formed a bullish Candlestick combination. The consolidation period afterwards was also very long. When it really came out, it took 62 days to break the neckline of this double bottom structure.

We will find that the bottom or the phased bottom, the period of consolidation is generally relatively long. One common point is that there must be a huge volume, which can be understood as the volume of the bottoming out, which is the first condition. The second condition is to try many times. Some people say that this time it also traded with a large volume, and there were no multiple attempts.

This can be understood as a big Whipsaw action in the pumpRelay. Of course, at this point, it is also a futures gap. It gaps up and needs to come back and fill the gap. This can only be considered a pumpRelay. The most representative ones are the two we mentioned. There was a high volume close to 16,000 US dollars before, which occurred during the downward correction of BTC and can also be understood as a downward correction Relay.

We need to distinguish whether it is a downward correction Relay or a bottom. A downward correction Relay usually breaks through the position directly after one probe, and it cannot be called a bottom when it breaks through on the second probe. At the same time, we can also find that if it is a bottom, it is generally a high-volume column, and there are also multiple probes to the bottom.

Let's take a look at the current price of Bitcoin, there is a top cover above the current BTC price, with three attempts to break through the top, but it did not touch the fourth time. At that time, we thought it might touch and bring a good profit, but it did not touch and directly broke through the candlestick of this breakthrough.

When the BTC price is at this level, it still forms a divergence of short positions at the daily chart level. The corresponding trading volume is also very large, which can also be classified as incremental volume. Speaking of incremental volume, it is just the first attempt. You will find that after this market test, it starts to rise, then oscillate, rise again, and then come back. Just now we mentioned that if it is a bottom, it should be multiple times, and not make new lows. It can dip a little bit, but not too much.

So if the price of Bitcoin, if 49000 is the bottom, there should be a second, even a third attempt, and it cannot break 49000. Of course, if one day the price of Bitcoin breaks 49000, runs to 44000, 45000, it means 49000 is just a downward correction.

Returning to the daily candlestick level, let's take a look at the current support for BTC. The first support level is at 56500 US dollars, which is a support level for BTC. Once broken, it will test 50000 US dollars again. In general, when retesting the previous low point for the second time, the probability of support is very high.

Near this area, there is a high possibility of a bottom-touching and oversold Rebound market, and you can participate with appropriate Position to speculate on the Rebound. What if it breaks 49000? It may go to the lower channel around 43000. In fact, this place is also the starting point of the final wave of Bitcoin.

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