The US debt ceiling crisis is expected to be lifted, and the market believes that more money will be printed to pay off debts, which will eventually lead to capital inflows into riskier crypto assets.

Written by: Jonas

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Monetary liquidity improved. Due to the strong US economy, the market expects that high interest rates will be maintained after June. Historically, the average time between cutting interest rates and not raising interest rates is 6 months. The U.S. dollar index rebounded to a seven-week high, but did not change its bearish trend. U.S. stocks rose, and the overall first-quarter report was better than expected. The U.S. debt ceiling crisis is expected to be lifted, and the market believes that more money will be printed to pay off debts, which will eventually lead to capital inflows into riskier encrypted assets.

Second, the whole market situation

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

The market has fluctuated within a narrow range this week. Many altcoins have a tendency to rebound, especially the current BTC price is relatively stable, and the meme hotspot is gradually ebbing, so funds are gradually shifting to altcoins. Market hotspots mainly revolve around the BTC ecology, liquidity staking, and the concept of Hong Kong.

1. LDO: The local dog market on the chain has increased the rate of return on ETH pledges. The supply of ETH pledges is in short supply, and node verification needs to wait for one month. The current market share of LDO is 86%, RPL is 8%, and FXS is 2%. The new v2 version is launched, and there are proposals to upgrade the economic model to the pledge model.
2. LTC: It will be halved on August 3. In the past, LTC has seen a good rise about 50 days before the halving.
3. CFX: The mobile phone chip released in cooperation with China Telecom. On June 1, the market expects that Hong Kong will release positive encryption policies.
4. OP: Bedrock will be upgraded on June 6, and the gas fee will be reduced by 50%. WorldCoin is built on the OP and currently has over 1.3 million registered users, so it may be good for the OP if WorldCoin succeeds.

3. BTC Market

1) Data on the chain

BTC transaction volume hits all-time high. As investors began to consider the halving narrative, so did BTC’s relative strength. Miner fees have skyrocketed to $18 million per day due to on-chain activity related to BRC-20. While transaction activity was booming, the number of active addresses fell to a cycle low of 570,000 per day. BTC, which accounts for 68% of the total circulation, has not changed hands in a year, and the total circulation is gradually shrinking.

The funds in the venue are fleeing at an accelerated rate. The market value of the four major stablecoins is still decreasing. The slow growth of funds is likely to lead to a continuous decline in purchasing power, making it difficult for the market to rise sharply.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.54, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week, and the market sentiment is stable. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: This week's total open interest was flat, and the main funds began to enter the wait-and-see mode.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a negative indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot Market

BTC has yet to break out of this year's uptrend this week. The volatility of the market has dropped sharply in the past two months, and it is in a period of temporary shock, waiting for the clarification of market information. When liquidity dwindles, prices can move wildly in either direction, potentially in the coming days or weeks.

B. Market Data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL ratio of each public chain

Total TVL rose slightly this week by 0.33b, ending weeks of decline with a rise of 0.7%. The proportion of the ETH chain has declined slightly in recent weeks, down 0.5% this week to 57.66%

Judging from the data of the past seven days, in the core public chain of the second-tier Ethereum network, Arbitrum continued to rise by 0.75%, and other popular L2s are ending their three-week continuous decline. Among them, Optimism rose by 1.49% this week, Polygon rose 2.03%, only Avalanche continued to fall 0.11%.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Tron Lockup Amount

4) Avalanche Lockup Amount

5) Polygon lock-up amount

6) Arbitrum Lockup Amount

7) Optimism Lockup Amount

4. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.41, which is back to the gas level of two weeks ago, a drop of 71% compared to the same time last week. In the past two weeks, there have been short-term hot spots, the market has continued to fluctuate, and gas has fluctuated greatly. The Uniswap transaction fee is about $12.75, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $4.95. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.

5. Changes in NFT market data

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT Market Conditions

3) NFT market share

4) Analysis of NFT Buyers

Judging from the total volume of the market, this week is still in a downward trend. According to the NFT market share, blur occupies about 61.7%, a decrease of 7.7% compared to last week. Opensea accounted for about 23.1%, an increase of ~1.1% compared to last week.

From the analysis of the situation of NFT buyers, the number of buyers has fluctuated in the bottom range recently, and has continued to decline this week, especially the decline of returning buyers, which has fallen back to the lowest point of last month.

From an overview of the NFT market, some blue-chip NFT floor prices generally rose this week, with Azuki up 3.09%, MAYC up 3.72%, and BAYC up 12%. Among them, Milady rose 2.87%.

6. The latest financing situation of the project