Crypto Market Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Resilience at a Critical Moment

Recently, the crypto market has undergone an important test. Although the overall dollar assets are under pressure, this is likely just a test of the bull-bear boundary. From a more macro perspective, the current market trends may signify an important turning point in the global economic landscape.

Last month, we pointed out that the adjustments of MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock and Bitcoin (BTC) showed positive characteristics. In the new cycle, the low volatility characteristic of Bitcoin has become increasingly evident. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the performance of MSTR and BTC for the remainder of this year. The key support level of $75,000 has attracted a large amount of buying interest, and several bottom divergence signals have emerged. This resonates with the rebound of dollar-denominated assets, and it is expected to bring at least one round of mid-term rebound.

From a technical analysis perspective, during the recent round of market divergence, many dollar risk assets have experienced a surge in trading volume near key support levels. It is worth noting that, even in the context of other tech giants' stocks generally weakening, MSTR and BTC still exhibited relative strength.

We have observed some noteworthy market divergence phenomena:

1. There is a significant divergence between the Bitcoin price and the contract open interest.
2. The MACD and RSI indicators of Bitcoin itself are also showing a divergence.

Based on these observations, we believe that the market may have already reached a recent low.

MSTR stock, after experiencing a previous surge, still maintains a high daily trading volume and often ranks among the top ten in terms of trading volume in the US stock market. This aligns with our earlier hypothesis regarding capital flow. It is expected that more funds will flow from the US stock market to Bitcoin-related assets in the future, and this pattern is reminiscent of certain investment strategies that began twenty years ago.

Renminbi assets have also undergone the expected severe test. This has made more people aware of the changes happening in the global economic landscape, including military, manufacturing, technology, and demographic structure. Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap. With the potential global monetary easing policies that may arise in the future, it is expected that more investors will pay attention to the progress of the Chinese economy in recent years in areas such as consumer brand upgrading and chip technology breakthroughs.

Finally, as the market sentiment gradually calms and the fear index (VIX) recedes, we can't help but reminisce about the original intention of Bitcoin's creation. The current concerns regarding currency stability, sovereign stability, financial stability, and asset security are precisely the scenarios considered at the time of Bitcoin's initial design. In the future 2025-2026, we will witness whether Bitcoin still adheres to the principles it was founded upon.

At this moment, just like in that time, the crypto market is standing at a crucial historical juncture.