Tariff policies trigger market turbulence, questioning the hedge property of BTC

Recently, U.S. President Trump has reintroduced tariff policies, which have had a significant impact on the global trade landscape. This move has not only shaken traditional financial markets but has also affected the cryptocurrency market.

The new tariff policy announced by Trump in April 2025 is a continuation and upgrade of trade protection measures during his second term. The scope and intensity of this policy's impact exceed that of similar actions during his first term. Following the announcement, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines. From April 2 to April 8, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 2,300 points, the Dow Jones index dropped nearly 4,600 points, and the S&P 500 index even fell below the 5,000-point mark.

The cryptocurrency market has also been severely hit. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low of 74,500 USDT on the evening of June 7. Data shows that within 24 hours after the tariff policy took effect, the crypto market plummeted across the board, with mainstream crypto assets generally dropping by 3%-10%, and a total market value loss of about 300 billion USD.

However, after Trump announced a 90-day delay in tariffs on 75 countries on April 10, the market showed signs of recovery. The BTC price returned to the 80,000 USDT level, and most cryptocurrencies also exhibited an upward trend. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains in a state of extreme fear. Some analysts believe that Trump's actions may raise suspicions of market manipulation, while others are concerned about the potential "death spiral" that could occur in extreme cases.

This incident has raised questions about BTC's attributes as "digital gold" for hedging. Compared to traditional gold, BTC has exhibited greater volatility during this crisis. In fact, the price movement of BTC is increasingly correlated with the three major U.S. stock indices, which is far from the characteristics of a safe-haven asset.

In contrast, tokenized gold assets have recently performed strongly, with a market capitalization approaching $2 billion, becoming a new safe-haven hotspot in the crypto market. Since Trump's inauguration, the trading volume of some tokenized gold assets has increased significantly.

This phenomenon has sparked reflections on the nature of BTC. Does it truly have a safe-haven function like gold, or is it more like a high-risk speculative asset? For institutional investors, BTC seems to be viewed more as an exposure to macroeconomic risks rather than a traditional safe-haven tool.

Nevertheless, there are still positive factors in the market. Historically, similar tariff policies have often ultimately driven the global trade mechanism towards a more mature and rational direction. Trump's quick "brake" on this tariff policy also suggests that it may be more of a negotiation strategy rather than a substantive impact.

For cryptocurrency investors, the simple "HODL" strategy may need to be reconsidered. The uncertainty in the market could persist for a long time, and investors need to have a more comprehensive understanding of the project's fundamentals and practical applications. What truly stands the test of time are those structural assets and on-chain application networks that continue to exist and are widely used after each market fluctuation.

Long-termism should not be limited to an obsession with coin prices, but should focus on understanding and participating in the evolution of the entire industry structure. What is truly worth investing in are those projects that continuously iterate, drive implementation, and attempt to solve real-world problems using blockchain technology. In the current market environment, rather than paying attention to short-term price fluctuations, we should delve deeper into those projects committed to promoting the practical application of blockchain technology.