Crypto Market Dynamics: Bitcoin and Ethereum Pullback Analysis and Future Trend Outlook

1. Market Observation

Core inflation data in the United States has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are significant differences in market outlook. Some believe that the impact of tariffs will become evident in July and August, leading to greater price pressure; while others emphasize that companies are pricing cautiously due to weak demand. This divergence is also reflected within the Federal Reserve: the Chair hinted at possibly lowering the threshold for rate cuts, while a regional Fed President advocated for maintaining a tighter policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve leans towards a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing caution against misleading short-term data and reaffirming the independence of the central bank.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has accelerated the legislative process by establishing "Crypto Currency Week," during which a bill will regulate the stablecoin market. The bill requires stablecoin reserves to be held in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, serving a dual purpose: first, to weaken competitors by supporting compliant stablecoins and solidifying the dollar's digital dominance; second, to create significant demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and alleviate fiscal pressure. Additionally, several tech giants are venturing into stablecoins, attempting to establish an efficient cross-border settlement network. Analysts believe that this regulatory shift will strengthen Bitcoin's position as digital gold.

Bitcoin has entered a pullback after reaching a new high, with multiple analysts focusing on the futures market gap repair. The general view is that Bitcoin may pull back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, after which it could see a new round of increases. Some analysts pointed out that if the price fails to quickly break through the current area, it may instead push Bitcoin back up to around $120,000. Other opinions suggest that the market has not yet peaked, with the next key level being $136,000, and strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000. From a cyclical perspective, the current expansion still has room to continue.

Ethereum's market capitalization has surpassed 10%, with analysts believing that the trends of stablecoins and tokenization are driving its demand growth. On the technical front, multiple analysts are focusing on its futures gap, believing that after filling the gap in the range of $2830 to $2925, Ethereum is likely to break through $3200. Some viewpoints point out that the trading activity of Ethereum has increased, and it has the potential for a rebound in the context of expected liquidity easing.

The altcoin market is showing sector rotation: payment tokens have started first, major coins are gaining momentum, and a certain public chain ecological project is forming a relay. The heat for Chinese concept tokens remains high, with multiple projects reaching historical highs. AI-related tokens have also seen significant increases.

2. Key Data (as of July 16, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $117,798 (year-to-date +26.05%), daily trading volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 (Year-to-date -5.91%), Daily Trading Volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC 0.52 sat/vB, ETH 0.9 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector Gains: DeFi +5.98%, GameFi +4.52%
• 24-hour liquidation: 106,515 people, total amount 355 million USD

3. ETF Fund Flow (As of July 15)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, net inflow for 9 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, net inflow for 8 consecutive days

4. Recent Important Events

• July 16: A certain wallet platform is conducting a token issuance event.
• July 16: A certain project opens token airdrop
• July 16: The U.S. House of Representatives holds a hearing on digital asset tax policies
• July 17: A certain trading platform launched a new token.
• July 17: A certain project starts its token public sale
• July 17: The Federal Reserve releases the economic conditions report
• July 17: The President of the New York Fed delivered a speech on the economy and monetary policy.
• July 16-17: Multiple projects will unlock tokens

5. Market Hotspots

• Large ETH purchase: Two suspected related wallets spent over 100 million dollars to buy 33,366 ETH.
• Token Buyback: A certain project completed a buyback of 180 million tokens.
• Institutional Services: A certain bank has launched spot trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum for institutional clients.
• Industry Mergers and Acquisitions: A fintech company acquires a blockchain development team to accelerate the development of the RWA platform.
• Institutional Investment: A certain company raised $413 million in a short period, and some of the funds have been invested in ETH.
• Token reduction: A large holder reduced 15,000 Ether through an intermediary platform.
• Buyback action: A certain project is suspected of transferring $16 million worth of SOL to the buyback address.