ETH ETF single-day capital inflow of 1 billion USD sets a record, can Ethereum reach a new high in August?

As of August 13, the latest data shows that the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF set a historical record on August 11 with a single-day net inflow of $1.019 billion, soaring 40% compared to the previous peak of $726.6 million. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA accounted for $640 million, while Fidelity's FETH followed closely with $277 million, both setting new records for their respective single-day highest inflows. This figure significantly surpasses the Bitcoin ETF's performance of $178 million during the same period, highlighting the accelerated influx of institutional funds into the Ethereum ecosystem.

Market Structure Dramatic Change: How ETF Reshapes ETH Supply and Demand Landscape

• Supply Squeeze Effect: Currently, the ETF consumes an average of 8,400 ETH daily, while the daily net issuance under the EIP-1559 mechanism is only 2,600 ETH, making the ETF purchase volume 3.2 times the net issuance. More astonishingly, on August 11 alone, the ETF purchase volume (238,000 ETH) exceeded 50% of the total net issuance since the merge in 2022 (451,000 ETH).
• Position centralization: The total asset management scale of the ETF has reached 25.71 billion USD, accounting for 4.77% of Ethereum's total market value. Combined with the exchange's ETH inventory dropping to 15.28 million coins (a nine-year low) and the staking amount exceeding 30% of the total supply, the liquidity of chips continues to tighten.

Price Impact Empirical Evidence: The Driving Forces and Risks Behind a 45% Monthly Increase

With the support of ETF funds, the ETH price shows a strong trend:

• Reached $4420 on August 12, a new high since December 2021
• In the last 30 days, it surged by 45%, with a weekly increase of 21%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin.
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate appreciated by 18% within the month, showing a clear trend of capital rotation.

However, the risk indicators are rising in sync:

• Exchange leverage ratio ( ELR ) rises to 0.68, approaching historical peak
• The short positions in the derivatives market increased by 40% week-on-week, raising the risk of a short squeeze.
• Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warns: excessive accumulation of ETH by enterprises may trigger a "leveraged bubble".

Institutional Behavior Upgrade: The "Balance Sheet Revolution" from Bitcoin to Ethereum

Public companies are accelerating the inclusion of Ethereum in their asset allocation:

• BitMine increased its holdings by 317,000 ETH in a single week, bringing the total holdings to 1.15 million (valued at 4.9 billion USD), with plans to refinance 20 billion USD to achieve a holding target of 5% of the total supply.
• SharpLink holds 598,800 ETH, ranking second, with recent financing of 900 million USD to expand positions.
• The total holdings of enterprises have surged by 84% compared to July, with a total value exceeding 13 billion USD. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that by 2026, the proportion of enterprise holdings may reach 10% (currently about 1%).

Macro and Regulation: Dual Benefits Catalyze the Market

• Federal Reserve policy shift: July CPI year-on-year 2.7% (below expected 2.8%) strengthens September rate cut expectations, increasing the attractiveness of risk assets.
• Regulatory Breakthrough: The SEC establishes new standards for cryptocurrency ETFs, with mainstream tokens such as Solana and XRP expected to be approved before October. At the same time, the physical creation and redemption model is approved, reducing tax friction for institutions.

Future Outlook: Key Variables for Breaking Historical Highs

The technical analysis shows that the next resistance levels for ETH are at 4501 USD and 4788 USD (only 2% away from the historical high of 4878 USD). Whether it can break through depends on three main factors:

1. ETF Continuous Inflows: If it maintains weekly inflows above $2 billion, it will exacerbate supply shortages.
2. Leverage liquidation rhythm: The derivatives market requires a healthy correction with a leverage ratio of 0.68.
3. Federal Reserve September Decision: Interest Rate Cuts May Trigger Large-scale Allocation of Traditional Capital

As of August 13, the total assets under management of Ethereum ETFs reached $25.71 billion. Under the structural squeeze of the ETF's average daily consumption being 3.2 times the net issuance, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and corporate balance sheet allocation needs, the momentum for Ethereum to hit a historical high is accumulating. However, leverage risks and regulatory variables still need to be watched — this Ethereum revolution led by institutions is pushing ETH towards an unprecedented new era of liquidity.