June Crypto Market Analysis

Summary

Inflationary pressures have eased but remain above the Federal Reserve's target, the labor market is overall robust, and consumer spending has slowed. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged and is cautious about rate cuts. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have intensified market volatility, while US-China economic and trade dialogues have provided a brief boost, but the global economic outlook remains under pressure.

The crypto market is active but the momentum is weakening, with funds becoming cautious. The market capitalization has decreased by 4.03% compared to the previous period, with the focus of funds returning to BTC, while ETH and stablecoins perform steadily. Newly launched tokens are mostly concentrated in the DeFi and Layer 1 tracks, with VC-supported projects dominating.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.13 billion, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of about $80 million, reflecting an increase in short-term risk aversion. The stablecoin market continues to expand, with a circulation increase of approximately $4.17 billion in June.

Bitcoin has strongly rebounded and surpassed $108,000, with continuous net inflows into ETFs reflecting bullish sentiment from institutions. The technical indicators show that bulls are regaining control, and there may be a challenge to historical highs in the short term. Ethereum and Solana have rebounded simultaneously, and if they break through key resistance levels, further increases are expected.

The listing of Circle has driven the stablecoin sector to strengthen, but the sustainability of the valuation remains to be observed. The popularity of Virtual has declined after its explosive growth in the Base ecosystem. The auction of Pumpfun tokens has been postponed again, leading to market divergence. Coinbase is promoting the integration of the Base chain with its main applications, while JPMorgan is piloting a "deposit token," accelerating traditional institutions' layout in the on-chain dollar track.

Macroscopic Perspective

CPI year-on-year growth of 3.3%, core CPI year-on-year growth of 3.4%, inflation pressure has eased but remains above the Federal Reserve's target. The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.5%, and the labor market remains stable. Retail sales declined by 0.9% month-on-month, as consumer spending is suppressed by high interest rates.

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged and expects to cut rates twice before the end of the year, but remains vigilant about inflation risks. The dot plot shows a divergence in rate cut expectations.

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has triggered market panic, while the resumption of trade talks between the US and China briefly boosted sentiment. The global economic outlook is under pressure, and investors' risk appetite is declining. In the future, the market will be influenced by both expectations of interest rate cuts and changes in the international situation.

Crypto Market Overview

The average daily trading volume is approximately $107.7 billion, down 6.6% from the previous period. It peaked at $167.9 billion on June 13, but overall momentum has weakened.

The total market capitalization has decreased to $3.40 trillion, a decline of 4.03% compared to the previous period. BTC market share has risen to 64.8%, while ETH stands at 9.0%.

The newly launched popular tokens are concentrated in the DeFi and Layer 1 sectors, with VC-backed projects dominating. DeFi projects such as SPK, RESOLV, and HOME are gaining attention.

On-Chain Data Analysis

Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.13 billion, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of about $80 million.

The total circulation of stablecoins increased by $4.17 billion, mainly from USDT, USDE, and USDC.

Mainstream Currency Price Analysis

Bitcoin has strongly rebounded and surpassed $108,000, with the potential to challenge the historical high of $111,980. The technical analysis shows that the bulls have regained control.

Ethereum rebounded near the 20-day moving average, with a temporary balance between bulls and bears. A breakout of the moving average could open up upside potential, while a drop below $2,323 may lead to a re-test of the $2,111 support.

Solana rebounded above the 140 dollar mark, and if it holds above the 20-day moving average, it is likely to further test 160 dollars. If it falls below 140 dollars, it may retrace to 123 dollars or even 110 dollars.

Hot Events

The listing of Circle has sparked a wave of interest in the concept of stablecoins, with a market capitalization at one point exceeding $76 billion. However, there are risks associated with excessive reliance on interest margin income.

The US Senate passed the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act", establishing a legal status for stablecoins. Domestic platforms like Circle and Coinbase benefit.

The virtual innovation subscription mechanism has become extremely popular in the Base ecosystem, but the "green lock mechanism" has restricted liquidity, leading to a decline in enthusiasm.

Outlook for Next Month

The Pumpfun token auction, valued at $4 billion, has been postponed again, and the market has differing views on its prospects.

Coinbase promotes the integration of the Base chain with its main application, while JPMorgan pilots the "deposit token" JPMD. Traditional institutions are accelerating their layout in the on-chain dollar and compliant stablecoin sector.