The global trade pattern is undergoing significant adjustments, with Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" becoming prominent.

In March, the global market was shrouded in the haze of policy uncertainty, eager to find new support points. The revaluation of U.S. stocks accelerated, and the cryptocurrency market was no exception. With the new tariff policy coming into effect on April 2, the global trade order is facing deep restructuring, forcing countries to urgently adjust their economic policies. In such moments, it is particularly important to remain patient. As the new order gradually establishes itself, market sentiment is expected to improve.

The Trump administration made multiple adjustments to its tariff policy in March and officially announced the implementation of a "comprehensive reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2. This policy imposes a base tariff of at least 10% on all goods imported into the United States and levies additional taxes on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits. This move has triggered the most intense wave of reshaping the global trade order since World War II.

After the news was announced, the market reacted violently. The US stocks and the US dollar both plummeted, with the dollar index falling below the 104 mark. Nasdaq futures dropped over 4%, and S&P 500 futures declined by 3.5%. The stocks of the seven major American tech giants saw particularly significant declines, with Apple Inc. falling 7.5% in after-hours trading. Funds rushed into safe-haven assets, with spot gold prices soaring to a historic high of $3160 per ounce.

The high tax rates and broad scope of this tariff policy far exceed Wall Street's previous expectations. Investors are concerned that the tariff war will ultimately impact the foundation of U.S. economic growth. First, there is the risk of supply chain disruptions. Targeted tariff increases on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and technology products (with some rates as high as 25%-50%) force companies to accelerate the regional restructuring of supply chains, leading to a significant rise in industry chain costs. Secondly, there is the hidden worry of an inflation spiral. According to calculations by a well-known investment bank, after the implementation of countermeasures, the U.S. CPI could be pushed up by 2-2.8 percentage points.

The chief economist of a rating agency has significantly raised the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy this year from 15% at the beginning of the year to 40%. Another investment bank's team of economists has also increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 35%. In March, some economic indicators in the U.S. showed a decline. Although the non-farm payroll data at the end of March indicated that the current unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.1%, the final value of the consumer confidence index for March dropped from 64.7 in February to 57, lower than the median expectation of economists. At the same time, the core PCE price index still reached 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting the dilemma of "slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation."

The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about economic uncertainty at the interest rate meeting in March. On one hand, economic growth is showing signs of slowing down, with the GDP forecast for 2025 being revised down from 2.1% to 1.7%; on the other hand, inflation remains quite sticky. In this context, the Federal Reserve's policy choice is in a dilemma: if it chooses to cut interest rates, it may further stimulate price increases; while maintaining high interest rates could exacerbate corporate debt pressure.

Therefore, in March, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. After the announcement of the new tariff policy on April 2, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in June, expecting a cumulative reduction of three times (i.e., 0.75 percentage points) before October. It is reported that the probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting has risen to about 70%, compared to approximately 60% before the tariff announcement.

The impact of tariff policies goes far beyond the domestic economy of the United States and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The "reciprocal tariff" plan promoted by Trump aims to increase fiscal revenue through tariffs while trying to use it as leverage to force other countries to lower tariffs or make other policy changes. Are other countries willing to cooperate in negotiations? How many concessions can Trump make in negotiations? Currently, major economies in the world are formulating counter-lists, and some analysts believe that global trade frictions are evolving from "localized conflicts" to "systemic confrontations." In the future, the global economy and financial markets will still need to withstand pressure amid this uncertainty.

U.S. stocks continued to decline in March, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to drop 8.7% and 12.3% respectively in the first quarter of 2025, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2022. Looking at a longer timeline, since Trump was elected President of the United States in November 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen from 6200 points to 5572 points, a decline of over 10%, resulting in a market value evaporation of $4 trillion.

In the past two years, the U.S. stock market has attracted global capital due to the "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) effect, accounting for over 50% of the global stock market capitalization. During periods of market prosperity, investor optimism about the U.S. stock market has continuously driven up stock prices, ignoring potential risks. However, as the economic cycle evolves, this divergence from fundamentals has become increasingly difficult to maintain, and institutional optimism about the U.S. stock market is being corrected: a certain investment bank has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6500 points to 6200 points, citing "tariff risks and slowing profit growth"; another investment bank has warned that 5500 points could be a technical rebound starting point, but it needs corporate profits to hit bottom for support.

This adjustment reflects the market's skepticism about the "earnings-driven" logic of the US stock market. The earnings growth expectation for the S&P 500 in 2025 has been revised down from 11% to 7%, while the earnings growth advantage of the seven tech giants is narrowing, with the gap between them and the S&P 493 shrinking from 30 percentage points to 6 percentage points.

At the same time, the confusion of U.S. policy signals has further exacerbated market panic. Trump urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates while not ruling out the possibility of an economic recession; White House officials downplay the risk of recession while acknowledging transitional pains. This contradictory stance leaves investors at a loss, severely impacting market confidence. The "Seven Tech Giants" were the first to face a wave of sell-offs, with a certain electric vehicle manufacturer dropping nearly 36% in the first quarter, and a certain chip manufacturer falling nearly 20%. As an important component of the S&P 500, the "Seven Tech Giants" have seen their market value evaporate by more than $2.5 trillion since Trump took office again, representing both a correction of previous valuation bubbles and a "vote with their feet" against policy uncertainty.

By the end of March, U.S. stocks rebounded to some extent, with the S&P 500 rising to 5767 points, reflecting the market's expectation of a "softening" of policies, meaning that the White House might adopt a phased or exemption strategy instead of a comprehensive tax increase. However, it turned out that the market's optimistic expectations at that time were unfounded.

It is worth mentioning that under the dynamic effects of interest rate cut expectations, tariff pressures, and recession risks, some institutions have clearly pointed out that the risk-reward ratio of a one-sided bet on the US stock market has significantly worsened. For example, a certain asset management company has warned investors that in such an environment, they need to rely more on diversification strategies than ever before and should not blindly bet on a one-sided rise in the US stock market.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the "Seven Tech Giants" all experienced declines in the first quarter, and Bitcoin also faced the dual impacts of market fluctuations and policy uncertainties. However, amidst the turbulence, its performance can still be considered strong: after the severe fluctuations at the end of February, Bitcoin did not show a unilateral decline in March, but instead displayed a "V-shaped" fluctuation with initial suppression followed by a rise. The monthly decline narrowed to 2.09%, significantly better than the NASDAQ index's decline of 8.2% during the same period. For a considerable period in the past, Bitcoin's trends were highly similar to those of tech stocks, often rising and falling together. However, during this period of market turmoil, Bitcoin has charted an independent course.

Especially in mid to late March, with the U.S. regulatory agency abolishing a regulation (allowing banks to custody crypto assets) and institutions increasing their holdings, coupled with the Federal Reserve signaling "three rate cuts this year" on March 20, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound. Overall, the adjustment of Bitcoin in March was more of a technical correction rather than a trend decline. A director of a research institution believes that the market has partially "priced in" the negative impact of tariffs, and the worst phase of selling may have ended.

Although the current cryptocurrency market is still shrouded in the shadow of the latest tariff policies, the U.S. government's recognition and regulatory process for the cryptocurrency asset sector has become increasingly clear. A series of measures are paving the way for the long-term development of the industry: First, on March 6, Trump signed an executive order to officially establish the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" (SBR), incorporating approximately 200,000 BTC previously confiscated by the federal government into the reserve, with a clear commitment not to sell them for four years. This marks the first time the U.S. government has managed Bitcoin as a permanent national asset, establishing its status as "digital gold." Although this executive order is not legislation, it lays the foundation for subsequent policies.

Secondly, regulatory agencies are gradually easing their historically tough stance on cryptocurrencies. They held their first cryptocurrency roundtable meeting in March and plan to hold four more roundtable discussions in April, May, and June this year, focusing on trading, custody, tokenization, and DeFi. This shift from "enforcement-centric" to "cooperation and rule-making" is seen as a key prelude to the implementation of a regulatory framework. In particular, the announcement by regulatory agencies to abolish a certain regulation means that banks can finally legally custody crypto assets. After this policy was abolished, several traditional financial institutions immediately launched crypto custody services, and it is expected that by Q2 2025, over $200 billion in institutional funds will enter through banking channels.

Institutional investors' enthusiasm for crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, continues to rise. On March 31, the CEO of a leading global asset management firm released a 27-page annual letter to investors. In the letter, the CEO issued a rare and serious warning: if the United States cannot effectively manage the ever-expanding debt and fiscal deficit, the "global reserve currency throne" that the dollar has occupied for decades could very likely be replaced by emerging digital assets like Bitcoin. Notably, the CEO mentioned Bitcoin a total of 7 times and the dollar 8 times in the letter, highlighting Bitcoin's importance in the current financial context and suggesting its potential key role in the evolution of the global economic landscape.

![Crypto Macro Monthly Report: The global trade order is undergoing the biggest reshaping wave since World War II, and the consensus of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is strengthening](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-3099db53422667828047dc8036227156.webp01

With the implementation of Trump's tariff policy on April 2, the economic outlook for the United States has become increasingly uncertain. If the U.S. economy does not fall into a deep recession under the tariff policy and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to see a trend reversal in the second quarter. During periods of economic instability, the scarcity and safe-haven attributes of Bitcoin will become more pronounced. Once market risk appetite rebounds, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, aligns with the market's potential demand for new safe-haven and value storage methods, and is likely to break through key resistance levels first, leading to a revaluation of its value.

In March, the market oscillated between "stagflation worries" and "policy easing". In the long term, if tariffs lead to rising inflation and erode the credibility of the dollar, it will force funds to shift towards non-sovereign assets. A CEO of an asset management company asked in a letter to investors: "Will Bitcoin shake the dollar's hegemony?" This is not without reason; he reminds us that the most disruptive variable in reshaping the new global financial order has already emerged.

![Crypto Macro Monthly Report: The global trade order is facing the largest reshaping wave since World War II,