95% No Cuts: Fed Quiet on the Outside, Political Storms Inside

As the highly anticipated FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve begins on July 29-30, the market seems unusually calm—but that calm may not last. According to Kalshi, a prediction platform supported by real money forecasts, there is a 95% chance that the Fed will not raise interest rates in this rate-cutting meeting. But the problem here is that this meeting may not be remembered for what the Fed did, but for what Donald said to Powell. Fed's Quiet Week? 95% Say No to Interest Rate Hikes, But That's Not the Whole Story As highlighted in a recent post by Kobeissi Letter, only 5% of participants predicted a 25 basis point cut, while less than 1% predicted a deeper cut. Therefore, attention is now truly focused on the next signals from the Federal Reserve system.

Wall Street is currently betting on two interest rate cuts between now and January 2026, due to weakening labor market data and decreasing inflation. As a result, the forecasting guide - commentary on future decisions - has become the real driving force of the market. Cryptocurrency investors and traders are closely monitoring moderate signals that could help increase liquidity and boost risk assets. For the cryptocurrency world, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance often triggers short-term price surges, as seen in the behavior of Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past week—although both have slightly decreased in the past 24 hours. Trump's Powell Bomb: "He Will Leave Soon" — Why Now? As the market is absorbing expectations about interest rates, the latest news about Trump today has sparked new instability. In a prominent post on Coin Bureau's Truth Social, he said: "Powell will leave soon. I will miss him a lot." This line has raised speculation about whether Powell will resign on the day of the Fed meeting. The answer is still uncertain, but the combination of expectations for no interest rate cuts and rumors about Powell's resignation has created a dual volatility story that the market cannot ignore. The Cryptocurrency Market Faces Double Instability: Policy + Politics As of now, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.91 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume surging by 43.88% to $176.18 billion. Despite the recent slight decline of BTC and ETH, the events this week could shape the trend for the next major shift.

If Powell is replaced, this could lead to a change in Trump's tone - either towards quicker easing or unpredictable tightening. Currently, the cryptocurrency market sentiment is at a greed level of 75 as can be seen in the chart.

As a cryptocurrency analyst, I believe traders should stop focusing too much on whether there will be interest rate cuts. The bigger question is: Who will lead the Fed when those cuts happen? Conclusion: The Fed May Pause, But Will the Situation Change? The Fed's interest rate cut meeting may theoretically bring no surprises, but the implications are very strong. On one hand, Kalshi predicts that there will be no interest rate cuts, supporting risky assets like cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, Trump's surprising comments about Jerome raise doubts about the stability of the FOMC leadership. With increasing speculation about Powell's future, the volatility in the cryptocurrency market has not yet stopped. The issue lies not only in monetary policy but also in currency strength.