Bitcoin breaks through the historical high of $123,000, when will alts follow?

Bitcoin hits a new high again, but the altcoin market still appears quiet. By reviewing the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we might be able to foresee the upcoming market direction.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a price discovery phase, while most mainstream alts have not yet shown significant momentum. Let’s explore the possible scenarios that may arise after a market breakout.

Since the middle of 2023, every time Bitcoin breaks through, it has triggered a collective rebound of alts:

• 30,000 to 44,000 USD
• $45,000 to $71,000
• $71,000 to $105,000 (after the US election)

After these breakthroughs, alts usually welcome a rapid rise period of 3-5 weeks. Subsequently, Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, regaining its market dominance and swallowing the gains of alts.

Currently, we seem to be in a similar market environment:

After Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of $107,000, it has risen to $123,000 and may challenge the $150,000 mark. If historical patterns repeat, this could be the starting point of a new altcoin bull cycle.

However, it is important to note that this may be a short-term sprint rather than a prolonged altcoin frenzy lasting several months. Bitcoin's market dominance has not yet broken through key levels, so this is not a full-fledged altcoin season.

If Bitcoin's dominance stops rising, altcoins still have room for growth. This is similar to the development of the past two market cycles.

The trends of mainstream coins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have shown significant divergence. Ethereum lagged significantly behind Bitcoin by the end of 2023, but each subsequent pullback has seen its bottom gradually rising. Solana had a strong early performance, but its momentum now seems to be running out. XRP initially performed weakly, but experienced a explosive rise after last year's U.S. election.

Signs of capital rotation have emerged

Currently, payment tokens have been launched first, including several "bank tokens" that comply with the ISO20022 standard.

Large-cap coins that have not yet been launched are worth paying attention to:

• A certain exchange platform token: the BTC exchange rate is close to the historical cycle low.
• LINK: Although it continues to decline, the fundamentals remain strong.
• ADA: is forming a long-term double bottom pattern
• TRX: poised for action
• DOGE: Often explodes during Bitcoin breakout cycles.

These may become core rotation targets.

If Solana starts to gain funding favor, its ecosystem tokens are also worth paying attention to. BONK has surged by 89%, and PENGU has become a hot topic as a Meme coin on social media.

In Layer 1 projects, Sui, Aptos, and AVAX (which has not launched since November 2023) may experience a relay market.

TAO and PEPE performed excellently in 2023:

• TAO: Increased 14 times within 5 months
• PEPE: 6.6 times increase in BTC within 3 months

They exhibit a strong narrative when Bitcoin rises; if new hot topics emerge, investors need to seize opportunities in a timely manner.

Current Trading Strategy

• Focus on blue-chip tokens
• Looking for unlaunched coins
• Follow strong narratives when leading projects launch
• Temporarily avoid small-cap alts to reduce risk

Capital rotation is key, don't blindly chase highs.

Alts may usher in a strong cycle of 1 to 2 months, but historical experience reminds us: take profits at the right time, and do not be overly greedy.

If Bitcoin breaks through $150,000, the top 20 coins by market capitalization may collectively rise, and some assets may experience significant catch-up rallies.

Stay rational in operations, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon poorly performing assets.

Maintain an optimistic attitude, but avoid falling into blind enthusiasm. Closely monitor changes in Bitcoin's dominance and observe the activity of BTC trading pairs.

Although it may not be a fervent cycle like in 2017 or 2021, it is still a reliable investment window. Small-cap coins will eventually experience rotation, but it requires patience to wait for the right timing.