Ethereum Value Reconstruction: The Ecological Cold and Hot Disjunction Behind the Rebound

The price of Ethereum rebounded from a low of $1385 to $2700, with a 97.7% increase reflecting a differentiation in the capital market. Institutional funds remain cautious in the ETF market, while the open interest in derivative contracts has reached a historical high of $32.2 billion. After a prolonged period of stagnation, the market seems to hope that this rebound will prove that Ethereum is still a value pit, and the Pectra upgrade supports this argument. By comprehensively interpreting Ethereum data, we can outline its current true state—a gradually emerging ecosystem undergoing value reconstruction.

Market and Capital: Cautious ETF vs Enthusiasm for Contracts

As of May 18, the total net assets of U.S. ETH ETFs reached $8.97 billion, accounting for 2.89% of Ethereum's total market cap. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs accounted for 5.95%, indicating a higher preference for Bitcoin in the ETF market.

From February to the end of April, Ethereum ETF funds were mostly in a state of outflow. A rebound began on April 21, but the overall rebound data is not significant. In April, the net inflow of the Ethereum ETF was approximately $66.25 million, and as of now in May, the net inflow is approximately $30 million.

Data shows that by the end of April, Ethereum's "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" (NUPL) turned positive. Previously, from April 1 to 22, NUPL remained negative, indicating that most holding addresses were in a state of loss when Ethereum's price fell below $1800. As of May 17, NUPL peaked at 0.328, indicating the early stage of a bull market or recovery, but has not yet reached an excessively optimistic phase.

It is worth noting that the number of addresses on the Ethereum chain with a balance greater than 1 has decreased during price rebounds, while this data continued to rise during previous price declines, indicating that some investors chose to buy the dip during the downward phase. After the price broke through $1800, some addresses chose to take profits, but the proportion decreased only slightly, about one thousandth. Currently, the proportion of profitable Ethereum addresses has reached 60%.

Although the recent price rebound is still far from the historical high, the contract open interest has reached a new high. On May 14, the open interest for Ethereum contracts reached $32.249 billion, close to the historical maximum level. The last time it reached such a scale was in January-February 2025, when the price of Ethereum fluctuated in the range of $3000-3800. This indicates that the market still maintains a high enthusiasm for Ethereum trading.

Overall, Ethereum has begun to attract capital inflows since its price bottomed out at the end of April, leading to a significant price increase with a maximum rise of 97.7%. However, in terms of capital inflow, particularly the flow of ETF funds, the proportion of traditional institutional capital increase is still low.

TVL Rebound, but Low Gas Failed to Activate Trading Volume

In terms of on-chain activity, the number of active addresses on Ethereum has not changed significantly, remaining fluctuating between 400,000 and 600,000 daily, a pattern that has persisted for over a year. Recently, the fluctuation curve shows a trend of breaking 600,000.

The changes in TVL data are more significant. The TVL in USD has rebounded since April 22, rising from around 45 billion USD to a peak of 64.6 billion USD. However, considering the substantial increase in the price of Ethereum, this change may not accurately reflect the real situation on-chain. When measured in ETH, the amount of ETH staked on the Ethereum chain has significantly decreased since April 9, dropping from a peak of 30.26 million to 24 million ETH, a decline of 20%. This may be due to some investors choosing to take profits or avoid unrealized losses during the rapid price increase.

Regarding gas fees, as of May 16, the average gas price on Ethereum was 3.572 Gwei, a significant decrease of 21.57% compared to the previous day, and a sharp drop of 51.76% year-on-year. Over the past 30 days, gas fees have generally shown a downward trend, mostly remaining below 8 Gwei, with a low of 1.6 Gwei on May 3. This change is related to EIP-7691 in the Pectra upgrade, which aims to reduce L2 costs by expanding blob space.

However, the extremely low Gas fees do not seem to have stimulated growth in on-chain transactions, and the daily transaction volume has not seen significant changes.

DEX Trading and Asset Landscape: Dominance of Stablecoins and Ecological Transformation

The staking data shows that from April 15 to May 5, the Ethereum staking volume has continued to experience a net outflow. In particular, Coinbase has seen a 30% outflow of its staking volume in the past six months. Currently, the validator with the highest staking volume is still Lido, reaching 9.11 million coins.

In terms of on-chain DEX trading volume, the Ethereum mainnet is expected to be significantly active after 2025, surpassing the levels of 2024 and approaching the peak period of 2021-2022. However, revenue data shows that the recent increase in trading activity mainly comes from stablecoin-related transactions. USDT generated $568 million in fees on Ethereum over the past 30 days. As of May 18, Ethereum remains the public chain with the largest stablecoin issuance, accounting for over 50%, with a total issuance of $127.3 billion, which is double its DeFi TVL.

Analyzing the categories of funds on the Ethereum chain, it can be seen that nearly half of the transactions are completed through stablecoins and ETH transfers, with a significant increase in the proportion of stablecoin transactions, while the proportion of DeFi and ERC-20 token transactions continues to decline. This indicates that Ethereum is transitioning towards the role of a value storage center for on-chain assets, while the development of MEME and application types seems to be constrained. Therefore, Ethereum's strategy of boosting activity by lowering fees and enhancing transaction speed may be difficult to implement effectively.

It is worth noting that although the average on-chain transfer amount on Ethereum has declined, it still ranges between several thousand dollars and 10,000 dollars, far exceeding other public chains, highlighting its status as a chain exclusive to large holders.

Overall, the recent price rebound of Ethereum seems more like the result of a growing pain during its transition period. On one hand, the Ethereum ecosystem is working to optimize its performance through technical updates and upgrades, but the results seem to be less than noticeable. On the other hand, it has become a hub for large capital and stablecoin transactions, with large holders seemingly satisfied with the relatively quiet state of the current blockchain.

Therefore, the rise and fall of a single indicator has become difficult to simply define the development status of Ethereum. The market needs to transcend traditional growth narratives and re-examine Ethereum's core role and long-term value in a multi-chain landscape. After various transformations, a more mature and "stable" Ethereum may be the inevitable direction and final form of its evolution.