The Dramatic Progress and Potential Impact of the U.S. GENIUS Act

From May to June 2025, the U.S. Senate's struggle over the GENIUS Act can be described as an epic battle intertwined with politics and finance. This bill, aimed at establishing the first federal regulatory framework for the $250 billion stablecoin market, experienced a thrilling turnaround from "procedural death" to "bipartisan compromise," ultimately advancing to the Senate floor debate stage with a voting result of 68 to 30.

Legislative Process: From Near Death to Revival

Timeline Review:

• March 2025: Republican Senator Bill Hagerty officially提出法案初稿
• May 8: The bill unexpectedly failed the first procedural vote by 48 to 49.
• May 15: The two parties held urgent consultations and introduced a revised version of the bill.
• May 20: The amendment passed a key "motion to terminate debate" with a vote of 66 to 32.
• June 11: The Senate passed the bill with an overwhelming majority of 68 to 30.

The core of this series of twists lies in the Republican Party's clever framing of the bill as a strategic tool for "digital dollar hegemony," while the Democratic Party is showing signs of wavering internally due to concerns that a "regulatory vacuum could lead to financial risks." Senate Majority Leader John Thune's lobbying remarks are highly provocative: "If the U.S. does not lead on stablecoin rules, China will fill the void with its digital yuan!"

Core Terms: Regulatory Blueprint and "Devil in the Details"

The regulatory framework design of the "GENIUS Act" attempts to strike a balance between "encouraging innovation" and "preventing risks," with its core provisions summarized into the following six pillars:

1. Dual regulation and issuance thresholds
2. 1:1 reserve and asset segregation
3. The "tightening spell" of tech giants
4. Consumer Protection and Bankruptcy Priority
5. Anti-Money Laundering and Transparency
6. President's family "exemption loophole"

Controversy Vortex: Trump's "Crypto Gold Mine" and the Bipartisan Divide

The biggest resistance to the advancement of the bill comes from the Trump family's deep involvement in the conflicts of interest in the cryptocurrency industry. Three major controversies have pushed the political game to a climax:

1. The "legalization arbitrage" of the USD1 stablecoin
2. The moral crisis of "pay-per-meet"
3. The "revolving door" of legislation and executive power

Despite the compromise reached by both parties on May 15 to remove provisions directly targeting Trump, some Democrats are still launching a "last-ditch effort" in the Senate to demand the disclosure of financial transactions involving Trump's family and associated companies. This moral battle is essentially a precursor to the 2026 midterm elections.

Market Volatility: Compliance Dividends and the "Oligopoly Era"

If the "GENIUS Act" is ultimately implemented, it will trigger a structural reshuffle in the stablecoin market:

• Top players "lay down and win"
• Traditional finance "cross-border harvesting"
• The "cure or poison" for the US debt crisis?
• The "Domino Effect" of Global Regulation

The War of the Future: The House Game and Trump's "Final Judgment"

Despite the Senate giving the green light, the bill still needs to pass three hurdles:

1. House of Representatives "Simplified Customs Clearance"
2. The President's "interest balancing"
3. The "Gray Rhino" of Judicial Challenges

Conclusion: "Dollar Hegemony 2.0" in the Crypto Era

The ultimate ambition of the "GENIUS Act" is to embed dollar hegemony into the genes of blockchain. By bundling U.S. debt with stablecoins, the U.S. is creating a "digital dollar empire"—every on-chain transaction globally subtly reinforces the dollar's reserve status. However, the risks of this gamble are equally enormous: if decentralized finance bypasses compliant stablecoins, or if China accelerates the internationalization of the digital yuan, the act could become a "house of cards."

The games of politicians, the lobbying of interest groups, and the frenzy of technological revolutions—at this historical crossroads, the ultimate fate of the GENIUS Act will determine who dominates the financial order of the next decade.