Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Whales Leaving Suggests Increased Dumping, Bearish Technical Signals Indicate Imminent "Collapse"

Bitcoin (BTC) fall has further intensified, currently reported around 115,500 USD in the Asian market close today (25). The Bitcoin whale addresses have decreased by 2.7% in the past 10 days, indicating that major holders are quietly exiting. The proportion of whales on exchanges has surged, showing that more whales are transferring their coins to exchanges, which is typically a sell signal.

Although retail investors expect a market rebound, on-chain signals indicate that the situation is more serious. Both Whale investors and institutional investors seem to be retreating, and the charts are not optimistic.

Whale activity depicts a pessimistic picture

The price of Bitcoin has currently fallen by 6% from its historical high of $122,838, and this decline may not be coincidental.

In the past 10 days, the number of Whale Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has decreased from 2,037 to 1,982, representing a fall of 2.7%. This is the largest drop in whale participation in over six months.

(Source: Glassnode)

What is important is not only the decrease in the number of wallets, but also the rise in the whale ratio on exchanges (an indicator measuring how much of the exchange's funds come from whales).

Historically, this rate has hit three consecutive lows on July 4, 8, and 13. This coincided with the time when Bitcoin prices surged to historical highs. Now, we are seeing higher highs once again. The rate was 0.5 on July 22 and rose to 0.52 by July 24, just as Bitcoin prices began to fall.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

This pattern suggests that whales are not just exiting—they are also sending Bitcoin to the exchange. If history repeats itself, there could be greater selling pressure. Reportedly, Galaxy Digital recently deposited 10,000 BTC into the exchange, which has heightened the anxiety among institutional investors.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

The weakness of Bitcoin driven by whales is now evident on the 4-hour chart, with smaller time frames typically used for early trend insights.

The price of Bitcoin has just dropped below the 100-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which is a key short-term support level. Worse still, the 20-period EMA (red line) is about to drop below the 50-period EMA (orange line), suggesting a bearish "death" cross is imminent.

Why is this important? These EMA levels often act as momentum signals for traders. A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day EMA typically confirms that short-term sellers have taken control.

This is consistent with the outflow of funds from whales and the quiet reduction of investments by large investors such as Galaxy.

The next key support level is the 200-period EMA (blue line) on the 4-hour chart, currently located around $113,000. This EMA line also aligns with the key support level.

(Source: Trading View)

$113,000 is a key support level

The daily price chart of Bitcoin also shows a similar situation. After maintaining around $117,000 for the past week, BTC has fallen sharply and is currently hovering around $115,000. If $113,000 cannot be held, the next support levels will be at $110,000 and $107,000: these two levels are marked by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively.

These are not random lines. They reflect the broader psychology of traders during the pullback. If the price falls below $113,000, the BTC price may face a deeper retracement. Coupled with the bearish EMA pattern and increased Whale activity to exchanges, the risk of a Bitcoin crash remains high.

However, if the price of Bitcoin successfully recovers to $117,000 and breaks through the previous historical high of nearly $123,000, the bearish pattern may soon be broken. However, to achieve this, the big players in the Bitcoin space may need to return to the market.

(Source: Trading View)