Expected Price of XRP If It Captures 20% of Global E-commerce Transactions

As XRP continues to draw attention in the cryptocurrency space, some analysts believe that this digital asset is still significantly undervalued, especially in the context of global payment systems. One important area where XRP could be widely applied is e-commerce, a sector that is poised for continuous growth throughout this decade. Assessing the Role of XRP in E-commerce Growth According to industry forecasts, the global e-commerce payment market, valued at approximately 7 trillion dollars in 2024, is expected to increase to 11.4 trillion dollars by 2029. This growth is driven by factors such as the expansion of mobile-first shopping trends, the increasing adoption of e-wallets, and the demand for faster, more efficient payment options. While traditional methods such as credit cards and debit cards are still widely used, there is clearly a shift towards more modern solutions. Digital assets, such as XRP, are identified as strong contenders in this changing landscape. In August 2024, Web3 Enabler, a partner of Salesforce Web3, highlighted the potential of XRP in cross-border and domestic e-commerce transactions. The fast payment times and minimal transaction fees of this cryptocurrency are seen as advantages that align with the needs of both sellers and consumers. To understand the potential price impact if XRP supports a portion of global e-commerce activity, we explored a scenario in which XRP processes 20% of the projected transaction volume by 2029, equivalent to approximately 2.28 trillion dollars annually. XRP Valuation Forecast Based on Utility Model To estimate the corresponding valuation of XRP, two analysis methods have been considered. The first model evaluates XRP based on pure utility, in which the token functions as a core transaction layer within the payment ecosystem, similar to how financial institutions utilize liquid assets. Using the Velocity of Money formula (Velocity of Money) and assuming each XRP token circulates four times a year, the model shows that the required market capitalization is 570 billion dollars to facilitate 2.28 trillion dollars in annual transactions. With an assumed circulating supply of 60 billion tokens, the price of XRP would be 9.50 dollars. If the token circulation speed is lower, for example, each XRP token is only used twice a year, then more value needs to be allocated to each unit to support the same transaction volume. Under these conditions, the projected price model is $19.00 for each XRP. Speculative Value Forecast Based on Market Sentiment The second model examines the impact of market speculation, where investor enthusiasm and future expectations drive valuations before the actual utility is fully realized. This aligns with how assets like Bitcoin initially increase in value primarily due to anticipated usage rather than immediate adoption. By applying a speculative multiplier of 15x to the market capitalization of 570 billion dollars based on utility, this method yields an expected market capitalization of 8.55 trillion dollars. Dividing this figure by the 60 billion XRP tokens in circulation, we will have a theoretical price of 142.50 dollars per token. Although these models are purely hypothetical and depend on many assumptions, including trading volume, the circulation speed of tokens, and investor sentiment, they highlight the significant growth potential that could occur if XRP captures a substantial market share in the e-commerce sector. Whether driven by practical use or speculative investment, the future price of XRP may reflect a larger shift in how global payments are handled in the digital age.