[Circle: Regulatory dividends hard to offset valuation anxiety]

On Tuesday local time, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee updated the cryptocurrency market structure bill, continuing the regulatory benefits of the GENIUS stablecoin bill. Circle (CRCL), as the issuer of USDC, should have directly benefited, but the market did not respond favorably: the stock price closed down over 8%, and Compass Point directly downgraded its rating to Sell, with a target price of only $130, pointing to an overvaluation and a long wait for fundamentals to materialize.

Circle has added former AWS CEO Adam Selipsky to its board, aiming to strengthen its cloud capabilities and compliance framework. However, it has not managed to quell external doubts. Discussions on social media about "moats relying on regulation and the USDC interest rate spread being unable to support a hundred times PE" have rapidly intensified, and put options have become a hot topic.

Options end validation cautious sentiment:
30-day IV 88.8%, IV Rank only 0.14%, at a historical low;
OI Put/Call 0.87, Volume Put/Call 1.01, short-term protective hedging demand rises;
This Friday, the contract "220→200" large spread is active, indicating that funds are building a downward protection belt at low cost.

The pace of regulatory benefits realization is slow, and the fundamentals have not improved. Coupled with lower hedging costs in a low volatility environment, CRCL is caught in the valuation pressure of "good news realization leads to peaks."

Disclaimer: The content is for communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Circle