The global trade order is facing significant changes, and Bitcoin's "digital gold" status is further consolidated.

In March, the global market was shrouded in the haze of policy uncertainty, eagerly seeking new support points. The US stock market accelerated its valuation adjustment, and the cryptocurrency market was also inevitably fluctuating with the overall situation. At the beginning of April, new tariff policies were introduced, leading to a deep reshaping of the global trade order, and countries' economic policies were forced to adjust urgently. During this turbulent period, maintaining patience and strategic resolve is particularly important. As the new order gradually takes shape, market sentiment is expected to warm up accordingly.

In March, some economic indicators in the United States showed a decline. Although the non-farm payroll data at the end of March indicated that the unemployment rate remained at a low level of 4.1%, the final value of the consumer confidence index in March fell from 64.7 in February to 57, below economists' expectations. At the same time, the core PCE price index still reached 2.8% year-on-year, confirming the dilemma of "slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation."

The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about economic uncertainty at the March interest rate meeting. On one hand, economic growth is slowing down, with the GDP forecast for 2025 being revised down from 2.1% to 1.7%; on the other hand, inflation remains persistently strong. In this situation, if a rate cut is chosen, it may further stimulate price increases; while maintaining high interest rates would exacerbate the debt pressure on companies, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma regarding policy decisions.

Therefore, in March, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. Following the announcement of the latest tariff policy, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with a cumulative reduction of 0.75 percentage points before October. It is reported that the probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting has risen to about 70%.

However, the impact of tariff policies goes far beyond the domestic economy and monetary policy of the United States. The newly implemented "reciprocal tariff" plan aims to increase fiscal revenue through tariffs while also using it as leverage to force other countries to lower tariffs or make other policy changes. Currently, major economies around the world are developing countermeasures, and some analysts believe that global trade friction is evolving from "point conflicts" to "systemic confrontation." In the future, the global economy and financial markets will still need to bear pressure in this uncertainty.

U.S. stocks continued their downward trend in March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling by 8.7% and 12.3%, respectively, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2022. Looking at a longer time frame, since November 2024, the S&P 500 index has dropped from 6200 points to 5572 points, a decline of over 10%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $4 trillion.

Institutional optimism regarding US stocks is being adjusted: a certain investment bank has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6500 points to 6200 points, citing "tariff risks and slowing profit growth"; another investment bank warns that 5500 points may be the starting point for a technical rebound, but it needs corporate profits to bottom out for support. This adjustment reflects market skepticism about the "profit-driven" logic of US stocks. The profit growth expectation for the S&P 500 in 2025 has been revised down from 11% to 7%, while the profit growth advantage of the seven tech giants is narrowing.

At the same time, the confusion of U.S. policy signals has further intensified market panic. This contradictory statement has left investors at a loss, severely undermining market confidence. The seven major tech giants were the first to face a wave of sell-offs, with one electric vehicle company falling nearly 36% in the first quarter and a chip giant dropping nearly 20%. As an important component of the S&P 500, the market value of the seven major tech giants has evaporated by more than $2.5 trillion since Trump's second inauguration.

It is worth mentioning that under the dynamic interplay of interest rate cut expectations, tariff力度, and recession risks, some institutions have clearly pointed out that the risk-reward ratio of unilateral bets on US stocks has significantly deteriorated. For example, a certain capital management company has warned investors that in this environment, they need to rely more on diversification strategies than ever before and must not blindly bet on a unilateral rise in US stocks.

In a turbulent environment, Bitcoin's performance remains strong: after experiencing severe fluctuations at the end of February, Bitcoin did not show a one-sided decline in March, but instead exhibited a "V-shaped" fluctuation, first declining and then rising. The monthly decline narrowed to 2.09%, significantly better than the Nasdaq index's decline of 8.2% during the same period. For quite a long time in the past, Bitcoin's movement has been highly similar to that of tech stocks, often rising and falling together. However, during this market turmoil, Bitcoin has charted an independent course.

Especially in mid to late March, with the U.S. SEC abolishing SAB 121 (allowing banks to custody crypto assets) and institutions increasing their holdings, along with the Federal Reserve signaling "three rate cuts this year" on March 20, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound. Overall, the adjustment of Bitcoin in March was more of a technical correction rather than a trend decline. A head of a research institution believes that the negative impact of tariffs has been partially "priced in" and the worst phase of selling may have ended.

Although the current cryptocurrency market is still overshadowed by the latest tariff policies, the U.S. government's recognition and regulatory process in the crypto asset space has become increasingly clear, and a series of measures are paving the way for the long-term development of the industry:

First, on March 6th, the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" (SBR) was officially established, incorporating approximately 200,000 BTC previously seized by the federal government into the reserve, with a clear commitment not to sell them for four years. This marks the first time the U.S. government has managed Bitcoin as a permanent national asset, signifying the establishment of its status as "digital gold."

Secondly, the SEC is gradually easing its historically tough stance on cryptocurrencies. It held its first cryptocurrency roundtable in March and plans to hold four more roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, and DeFi in April, May, and June of this year, clearly shifting from "enforcement-led" to "cooperation and rule-making," which is seen as a key prelude to the implementation of the regulatory framework.

Especially since the SEC announced the repeal of SAB 121, it means that banks can finally legally custody crypto assets. After the repeal of the SAB 121 policy, several traditional financial institutions immediately launched crypto custody services, and it is expected that by the second quarter of 2025, more than $200 billion in institutional funds will enter through banking channels.

Institutional investors' enthusiasm for crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, continues to rise. On March 31, the CEO of a leading global asset management firm released a 27-page annual letter to investors. In the letter, he issued a rare and serious warning: if the United States cannot effectively manage its expanding debt and fiscal deficit, the "global reserve currency throne" that the US dollar has held for decades may very well be replaced by emerging digital assets like Bitcoin.

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With the recent tariff policy taking effect, the economic outlook for the United States is becoming increasingly uncertain. If the U.S. economy does not fall into a deep recession under the tariff policy and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to see a trend reversal in the second quarter. During times of economic instability, Bitcoin's scarcity and safe-haven attributes will become more prominent. Once market risk appetite rebounds, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, aligns with the market's potential demand for new safe-haven and value storage mechanisms, and is likely to break through key resistance levels first, leading to a reassessment of its value.

In March, the market wavered between "stagflation concerns" and "policy easing." In the long term, if tariffs lead to rising inflation and erode the credit of the dollar, it will force funds to shift towards non-sovereign assets. A CEO of an asset management company posed the question in a letter to investors: "Will Bitcoin challenge the hegemony of the dollar?" This is certainly not without basis; he reminds us that the most disruptive variable in reshaping the new global financial order has already emerged.

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