JPMorgan Strategist Dismisses Doom Forecasts Over US Debt and Tariffs

A JP Morgan executive has downplayed concerns regarding the U.S. national debt and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, asserting that these issues do not threaten U.S. dominance.

Addressing Critics’ Fears: National Debt and Tariff Policy

A senior JPMorgan Chase & Co. executive has dismissed concerns that the spiraling national debt and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies threaten to upend the U.S. dominance. Jacob Manoukian, JPMorgan’s U.S. head of investment strategy, argues that the fears are largely baseless, and he, for one, will not be paying attention to the “sell America” mantra.

Manoukian’s remarks came just weeks after the U.S. Congress passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which reportedly adds between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the U.S. national debt. Passage of the bill, which escalated tension between Trump and now former financial backer Elon Musk, was criticized by some business leaders. Billionaire Ray Dalio warned recently that America’s unsustainable debt puts it on a path toward an inevitable decline.

On the other hand, critics predict that the Trump administration’s tariff policy could see the U.S. slip into recession as early as the second half of 2025. While the debt problem, tariff policy, and the chaotic policymaking of the Trump administration remain concerning, Manoukian rejects the idea that this spells doom for the U.S.

“We completely disagree with that notion. There are cyclical reasons to think that the U.S. dollar can continue to depreciate against major trading partners, but we completely disagree with the idea that the U.S. is somehow losing its position as the center of the financial universe,” stated the JPMorgan executive.

He added that the U.S. system has generated capital market returns and protected shareholders each time it has been seriously tested, asserting that this success ensures it “evolves and hardens and becomes stronger.” Manoukian asserted that the kind of system, institutional decisions, political decisions, and cultural DNA the U.S. has is not found anywhere else. This, he said, underlies his confidence that America’s dominance is not about to end.

The Federal Reserve’s Independence Amidst Political Shifts

Regarding the possibility that a different administration in the White House might reverse some of Trump’s policies, the JPMorgan executive suggested that this ultimately has little bearing on market returns, a point that his company emphasizes to clients.

Turning to the U.S. Federal Reserve, whose chairman Jerome Powell has been on the receiving end of Trump’s social media assaults, Manoukian said the bank’s continued independent operation is “at the heart of this institutional argument” regarding what sets the U.S. apart from other nations. According to him, past clashes between the Federal Reserve and the White House made the former stronger and not beholden to the latter.

The JPMorgan executive also highlighted how the governors’ terms are out of sync with the political cycle and the fact that its board makes key decisions.

“So that’s another area where I think there’s just a little bit too much consternation from the marketplace about an erosion of institutional credibility,” Manoukian stated.