Four Major Cycles in Parallel: New Normal of the Crypto Market

The traditional "four-year cycle" theory is outdated. If you are still fantasizing about the "opportunity to win tenfold or hundredfold in a bull market," you may have already been abandoned by the market. The current crypto market does not apply a single strategy, but rather four completely different gameplay cycles are running simultaneously, each with different rhythms, strategies, and profit logic.

Bitcoin Super Cycle: Driven by Institutions, A Decade of Slow Bull

Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative target to an institutional allocation asset. The traditional halving cycle "script" has become ineffective, and the scale of funds and allocation logic from Wall Street, publicly listed companies, and ETFs is completely different from the "bull-bear switching" play of retail investors.

The key change lies in the large-scale handover of retail chips, while institutional funds are entering the market at an astonishing rate. This fundamental restructuring of the chip structure is redefining the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin.

Retail investors face the dual pressure of "time cost" and "opportunity cost." Institutions can withstand a holding period of 3-5 years, waiting for the long-term value of Bitcoin to be realized, while retail investors clearly lack this patience and financial strength.

In the future, there may be a Bitcoin super slow bull market lasting over ten years. The annualized return could stabilize in the 20-30% range, but the intraday volatility would significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. The price ceiling of Bitcoin may even be difficult to predict from the current perspective of retail investors.

MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: Specialized in Harvesting Leeks

The argument for a long-term bullish trend for MEME also has its rationale. During the period when technical narratives are lacking, MEME narratives will consistently fill the market's "boredom vacuum" in sync with the rhythm of emotions, funds, and attention.

MEME is essentially a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." No white paper, technological verification, or roadmap is needed, just a symbol that resonates. From pet culture to political MEMEs, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industrial chain.

The "short, flat, and fast" characteristic of MEME makes it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir for funds. When funds are abundant, it becomes the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are scarce, it transforms into the last refuge for speculation.

However, the MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition." The difficulty for ordinary retail investors to profit in high-frequency rotations is increasing exponentially. The entry of studios, analysts, and large investors will make this once "slum paradise" highly competitive.

Technological Narrative Leap Long Cycle: Bottom Fishing in the Death Valley

Real innovations with technical barriers, such as Layer2 scaling, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, require 2-3 years or even longer development time to realize their effects. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve, rather than the emotional cycle of the capital market, leading to a fundamental time misalignment between the two.

The technical narrative has been criticized by the market, primarily because projects have given overly high valuations at the conceptual stage, while they are underestimated in the "valley of death" stage when the technology is truly implemented. This determines that the value release of technical projects presents a non-linear leap characteristic.

For investors with patience and technical judgment, positioning valuable technology projects during the "valley of death" stage may be the best strategy for achieving excess returns. The premise is the ability to endure long waiting periods and market hardships, as well as potential skeptical voices.

Innovative Short-term Hotspots: Brewing the Main Rising Wave Narrative

Before the main technical narrative takes shape, various small narratives rotate quickly, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI infrastructure, with each small hotspot possibly having only a 1-3 month window.

This fragmented narrative and high-frequency rotation reflect the dual constraints of current market attention scarcity and capital rent-seeking efficiency. A typical small narrative cycle follows the six-stage model of "concept verification → capital testing → public opinion amplification → FOMO entry → valuation overextension → capital withdrawal." To profit in this model, the key is to enter during the "concept verification" to "capital testing" phase and exit at the peak of "FOMO entry."

The competition between narratives is essentially a zero-sum game of attention resources. However, there exists a technical relevance and conceptual progression between narratives. If subsequent narratives can continue the previous hotspots, forming a systematic upgrade linkage and, in the process, precipitate a sustainable value closed loop, it is very likely to give birth to a super narrative at the level of a major upward wave.

From the existing pattern, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to make breakthroughs first. If the underlying technologies can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to construct a super narrative similar to "AI Summer."

In general, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is essential to find suitable strategies at their respective rhythms. The single "four-year cycle" mindset is completely unable to keep up with the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multiple gameplay cycles running in parallel" may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.