Oracle Machine Track: Finding the Second rise Curve

The Oracle Machine is a key mechanism in blockchain systems that connects off-chain data with smart contracts, serving as one of the cornerstones of the blockchain world. Essentially, the core competitiveness of Oracle Machine projects is mainly reflected in four aspects: the comprehensiveness and credibility of data acquisition, the acquisition of exclusive data and value capture, the security and decentralization of the verification mechanism, and the transmission efficiency and network robustness.

By 2030, the overall market size of the Oracle Machine track is expected to be between 13.8 billion and 23.1 billion US dollars.

Currently, Chainlink is the absolute leader in the Oracle Machine track, with rich data sources and extensive project collaborations. Pyth has advantages in transmission speed and the acquisition of financial data. Redstone is currently the only Oracle Machine that supports both Push and Pull pricing methods.

In the future, the Oracle Machine will no longer overly rely on providing price feed services for DeFi projects, and RWA is expected to become a strong second rise curve in the Oracle Machine track.

In addition, emerging businesses such as DePIN, AI, and DeSci have the opportunity to integrate with the data services of the Oracle Machine in the future, becoming new driving forces for Oracle Machine revenue rise, driving industry growth from 2 to N.

1. The Development of the Oracle Machine

2014 and earlier: The demand for Oracle Machine began to emerge. The decentralized prediction market Augur allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events with digital assets.

2015-2016: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed the concept of Oracle Machine. Oraclize( now launched the first decentralized Oracle Machine service under the name Provable), supporting Ethereum smart contracts to access external data. The Ethereum mainnet went live.

2017-2018: The Chainlink project was established, proposing the concept of a decentralized Oracle Machine network (DON), aimed at solving the single point of failure problem. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) had not yet exploded, and the demand for Oracles was mainly focused on simple data calls.

2019-2021: The DeFi Summer arrives, and Oracle Machines become the most essential external data providers for DeFi. Oracle projects outside of Chainlink, such as Band Protocol and Tellor, are launched one after another, revealing the initial competitive landscape.

2022-2023: The DeFi market has entered a period of adjustment, but the Oracle Machine sector continues to innovate. Cross-chain interoperability and modular blockchains have become industry trends, with Oracle Machine services expanding to multi-chain and multi-scenario applications. Chainlink launched the cross-chain interoperability protocol (CCIP). The Pyth Network mainnet went live, attracting participation from multiple traditional financial institutions.

2024-2025: Oracle Machine services expand from DeFi to gaming, NFTs, insurance, and other fields. DePIN applications begin to have more demand for IoT Oracle Machines. AI integrates with Oracle Machines to explore new scenarios for automated execution of smart contracts.

2. Oracle Machine Track Market Size

By the end of 2024, the total market value of the Oracle Machine project is $10.55 billion, accounting for 11.8% of the total DeFi market value of $1,928,374,656,574,839,201. Compared to early 2021, when the market value of Oracle Machines once accounted for over 25% of DeFi, this proportion has significantly decreased. The core reason for this change is that new models like re-staking have expanded the boundaries of the DeFi industry, but compared to other inherent DeFi sub-sectors, the "necessity" of Oracle Machines remains solid.

Based on Grand View Research's forecast for the DeFi market, the compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030 is approximately 53%, and the market value will reach 231 billion USD by 2030. This article introduces two hypothetical scenarios: "steady share" and "declining share" to estimate the Oracle Machine market space.

Optimistic scenario: If the Oracle Machine market size can maintain 10% of the DeFi market size, it will reach $23.1 billion by 2030.

Neutral Scenario: If the Oracle Machine market size remains at 6-8% of the DeFi market size, it will reach 13.8-18.4 billion USD by 2030.

The prediction model calculates the potential market value of the Oracle Machine using the method of "market cap share × total DeFi market cap", which not only reflects its dependence on DeFi rise but also takes into account the trend of the Oracle Machine industry’s independent growth rate gradually slowing down relative to DeFi.

3. Major Projects in the Oracle Machine Track

The current landscape of the Oracle Machine industry can be described as dominated by one player. In terms of token market capitalization and TVS( total protected value), Chainlink is the absolute leader in this field. As of March 2025, Chainlink's TVS is $31 billion, accounting for 53.3% of the total TVS in the Oracle Machine sector, while its token market capitalization stands at $9.6 billion, making up 76.9% of the total market capitalization of the Oracle Machine sector. Beyond Chainlink, projects like Pyth Network, UMA, and API3 also occupy a place in the Oracle Machine field due to their advantages in low latency, verification mechanisms, and data acquisition.

( 3.1 Chainlink

Chainlink is the absolute leader in the Oracle Machine space, founded in 2017, and is one of the earliest Oracle Machine projects. Chainlink provides services such as price feeds )Data Feed(, automation )Automation###, verifiable random functions (VRF), and cross-chain operations (CCIP). In 2024, in terms of revenue composition, the income from price feed services accounts for the highest proportion of project revenue, making up 95% of the total revenue, with DeFi protocols being the main service target; the income from the other three types of services collectively accounts for 5%. Both automation services and cross-chain services account for 2% of the revenue, while the income from random number generation services is less than 1%.

(# 3.1.1 Chainlink Price Feed Service

The price feed is one of the most traditional services of the Oracle Machine. Chainlink's price feed service does not directly obtain prices from third-party APIs, but rather acquires data through data nodes. Taking the real-time ETH/USDT price obtained from a lending platform as an example, user trading requests on the blockchain will trigger a smart contract that calls Chainlink's Oracle Machine service to obtain the latest price data. Chainlink's Oracle Machine does not obtain information directly from a single data source, but rather collects data from multiple independent nodes from various high-quality data aggregators. The nodes locally aggregate and clean this data before submitting it to the blockchain.

Then, Chainlink's aggregation contract will filter and perform a weighted average of the data reported by all nodes, resulting in a final on-chain price for smart contract calls. In this process, the Oracle Machine nodes are composed of independent operators. After the lending platform uses this price data, it will pay $LINK tokens to the Chainlink network as a service fee through smart contracts.

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)# 3.1.2 Chainlink Automation

Automation### automation( is another important revenue-generating business of the Chainlink project. In 2021, Chainlink launched the Keeper trading automation service. Keeper is an external account) EOA###, which can trigger smart contracts to execute based on predefined conditions under certain economic incentives. Keepers use off-chain computation to execute the same smart contract functions as on-chain. Once the function returns a value of true, Keepers will initiate an on-chain transaction to call the on-chain smart contract function. In practical applications, Keepers can be used to automatically execute operations triggered by specific events, such as minting NFTs, rebalancing liquidity supply, yield aggregation, and loan repayment.

In 2024, Chainlink launched Automation 2.0. Automation 2.0 introduces cryptographic consensus in decentralized off-chain computation, shifting costly computation verification from the blockchain network to the off-chain network. Developers can improve the runtime of their dApps, reduce costs, and simplify the user experience. The savings on gas fees and the enhancement in computational performance will encourage more developers to choose Chainlink's Automation 2.0 solutions.

(# 3.1.3 Chainlink Cross-chain Protocol

In 2021, Chainlink released the cross-chain interoperability protocol )CCIP(, which is a new open-source standard for cross-chain protocols. This protocol provides smart contract developers with a universal infrastructure with computational capabilities, enabling the transmission of data and smart contract instructions across various blockchain networks. CCIP will become the underlying protocol for various cross-chain services, including Chainlink's programmable token bridge, allowing users to transfer tokens securely and efficiently to any blockchain network, with scalability.

For example, if a user expects to transfer 1,000 USDT assets from Sui to Solana, the key point is that the cross-chain bridge can verify that the user actually holds 1,000 USDT on the Sui chain. The Chainlink network, with its large and decentralized node network, has strong advantages in cross-chain verification and data relaying, making it very suitable for such high-security cross-chain scenarios.

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(# 3.1.4 Chainlink Verifiable Random Function

Verifiable Random Function is a cryptographic function that generates pseudorandom numbers based on data input and attaches a proof that anyone can verify. Chainlink VRF uses Goldberg's Verifiable Random Function )VRF(. Chainlink VRF generates one or more random numbers for each random number request and attaches a cryptographic proof of the random number. This proof will be published on-chain and verified on-chain, and only after verification will the random number be used. Chainlink VRF has covered multiple blockchain networks including Ethereum, Polygon, and BSC. In February 2022, VRF V2 was officially launched, which is a new upgraded version of VRF, featuring stronger performance and higher security.

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(# 3.1.5 Chainlink Enterprise Privacy Data Services

Chainlink, as one of the earliest Oracle Machine projects, has formed a relatively strong moat in the price feeding business, but the expansion of other businesses has not stagnated. There has been a noticeable rise in areas such as automation, cross-chain protocols, and verifiable random numbers. In addition, there are many entities that require peer-to-peer transmission of private data. To meet this demand, a large number of startups are focusing on private data, with methods including Multi-Party Computation )MPC(, Zero Knowledge Proof )Zero Knowledge Proof###, Homomorphic Encryption (HE), Trusted Execution Environment (TEE), and Federated Learning. Chainlink's powerful verification network can ensure the security and timeliness of private data transmission.

Chainlink provides businesses with the opportunity to sell data and API services in a blockchain environment, enabling various functions such as on-chain privacy data, off-chain computation of contract logic, and on-chain trading of privacy data. In November 2024, Chainlink announced the completion of a pilot program with the Global Banking Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) and Swiss banking giant UBS Group (UBS). The pilot project tested tokenized fund settlements among parties, including options for traditional financial systems to interact with the digital economy without using cryptocurrencies.

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