Is the public sale of pumpfun an easy money-making opportunity or a carefully designed "dumping" trap? After research, it seems this could be a trade with about a 70% upside and unlimited downside, resulting in a not-so-great risk-reward ratio.

Here are a few reasons
1. Timing for extracting liquidity: Pump. Fun has delayed its listing multiple times, ultimately deciding on the time window when liquidity is most abundant. If a project aims to dominate the market and gather chips, it doesn't need to deliberately choose this moment; the goal is likely to maximize value extraction at once, rather than for long-term operation of the project.

2. The issue of taking over behind high valuation and high financing: Public sale valuation ranks 50th with a market value of 4 billion USD, and the pressure from 600 million USD in fundraising is enormous with no lock-up restrictions. It also needs to include investors, arbitrage funds, and the project party itself. How many major players have the confidence to manipulate and profit afterwards, and how much capital do they need to prepare?

3. Special supply for Chinese: Public sales strictly exclude high-regulation markets such as the USA and Europe, and are mainly supported in Asia. It is sufficient for those with purchasing power to directly participate in public sales. Who will take over later? Will Americans and Europeans take over?

4. Project Fundamentals: Total revenue is 700 million USD, but income has plummeted by 92% compared to its peak. The issues faced are the rapid decline of the meme market and Pump.fun is struggling to maintain its market share. Under these circumstances, a normal valuation of 10 times would be great, which is a FDV of 7 billion USD, and it is almost impossible for the project team to consider dividends, as the market capitalization cannot support it.