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Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng: It is expected that around the end of the third quarter, the Central Bank will implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions again.
On July 7, Jinshi Data reported that overall, the industry generally expects that new RMB loans and social financing will increase month-on-month in June. Looking back at May's data, new RMB loans amounted to 0.62 trillion yuan, and new social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, predicts that new RMB loans in June will be around 2.1 trillion yuan, significantly increasing seasonally month-on-month, and remaining basically flat year-on-year. Wang Qing expects that new social financing in June will be approximately 4 trillion yuan, which will also increase seasonally month-on-month while seeing a year-on-year increase. Wang Qing believes that in the next stage, monetary policy will further focus on reducing financing costs for the real economy and guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of monetary credit issuance. It is expected that before and around the end of the third quarter, the Central Bank will once again implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. This is an important focal point for promoting consumption, expanding investment, and guiding a moderate recovery in price levels in the second half of the year.