The U.S. PCE data, simply put, is an important thermometer for the government to see whether "the common people are facing rising prices for goods." Once it is released, the market is most concerned about: inflation (is money losing value)? And the inflation data directly affects whether the Federal Reserve (FED) will raise or lower interest rates.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin and gold? It has a lot to do! Because both fear the same thing: high interest rates!

Situation 1: PCE data higher than expected (inflation is hotter than expected🔥)
What does the Federal Reserve think? "Oh dear, things are still so expensive? It seems we can't rush to cut interest rates; interest rates need to hold steady for a while, and they might even have to go up a bit more!"

Impact on Bitcoin (BTC):
Highly likely to fall! Why?
High interest = saving money and buying government bonds is more cost-effective. Bitcoin has no interest, holding it is a "loss" (opportunity cost is high).
High interest = it is difficult for everyone to borrow money, spending is cautious, and high-risk items (such as Bitcoin) are easy to sell.
High interest rates = the US dollar is usually more valuable (stronger), and Bitcoin is purchased with US dollars, making it appear more expensive.

Impact on Gold:
It can also easily fall, but it may be more resistant to declines than Bitcoin. Why?
Also afraid of high interest rates (holding gold does not yield interest).
The US dollar has strengthened, making gold seem expensive.
However! Gold is, after all, a traditional "safe-haven asset." If high inflation makes everyone worry that "money is becoming less valuable" or that "the economy is going to collapse," it may lead some people to buy gold for reassurance. Therefore, the drop in gold prices may not be as steep as that of Bitcoin.

Scenario 2: PCE data lower than expected (inflation has cooled down❄️)
What does the Federal Reserve think? "Oh? Prices are not rising much? Then we can arrange for interest rate cuts sooner!"

Impact on Bitcoin (BTC):
There is a high probability of a rise! Why?
The expectation of interest rate cuts = interest will be lower = saving money to buy government bonds is no longer attractive! The appeal of interest-free Bitcoin will increase.
Expectations of interest rate cuts = more money in the market, everyone is more willing to take risks = Bitcoin, this kind of "stimulating" thing, is more popular.
The expectation of interest rate cuts = the US dollar is likely to weaken (soften), making Bitcoin cheaper when bought with US dollars.

Impact on Gold:
It can also rise easily! Why?
Expectations of interest rate cuts = interest rates will be lower = the "no interest" disadvantage of gold has diminished, significantly increasing its appeal! This is the environment that gold loves the most.
The dollar is weak, and gold looks cheap.
If inflation cools down while everyone is a bit worried about the economy (afraid of recession), gold, as a "safe haven lifeline," can also attract buyers.

In summary

PCE data is hot (high inflation) → the market fears interest rate hikes/no rate cuts → Bitcoin and gold are likely to fall, but gold might be a bit more "resilient."
PCE data is cool (low inflation) → Market is happy about interest rate cuts → Both Bitcoin and gold are likely to rise, with gold possibly being more "stable."
Bitcoin is like a "young person who loves to party": it reacts particularly quickly and significantly to "how much money there is" and "whether market sentiment is high or not" (with sharp fluctuations).
Gold is like a "steady uncle": although it also enjoys a low-interest environment, at critical moments (panic, risk aversion) it is more reliable, with relatively smaller fluctuations.

The most critical point: the market is speculating on the "expectation difference"! The data itself is not absolute; the key is whether it is better or worse than what everyone **guessed before**. For example, if everyone originally thought inflation would be very high, but it turns out to be just a little higher, the market might actually breathe a sigh of relief (considering it as "not that bad"), and prices might even rise!

So the next time you see news saying "US PCE data is released," you will know:
Data higher than expected? → Bitcoin and gold may have to "take a hit."
Data lower than expected? → Bitcoin and gold may need to "bounce a bit."
Bitcoin jumps higher and falls harder; gold is relatively "gentler", but the overall direction is basically the same.