HashKey Trading Moment: ETH is expected to hit $2700, ZKJ experiences a big dump leading to $100 million in liquidations, Solana ecosystem tokens may benefit from the approaching ETF.

1. Market Observation

Keywords: interest rate, ETH, BTC

The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision in the early morning of June 19, Beijing time, and the market will pay close attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech to find policy direction. Despite the slowdown in job growth, the unemployment rate remained stable for three consecutive months, in part due to a sharp drop in immigration that reduced the supply of workers. Underlying inflation rose less than expected for the fourth straight month in May, and the two-year US Treasury yield fell seven basis points to 3.96% last week, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts. Officials, including Fed Governor Waller, have been open to rate cuts, arguing that the impact of tariffs on prices can be seen as transitory, as long as inflation expectations remain stable. Matthew Luzzetti, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, expects that if officials raise their inflation expectations, the number of rate cuts this year could be reduced to one, up from two previously forecasted. Former Fed economist Julia Coronado is expected to start cutting interest rates in the fourth quarter of this year in response to a possible slowdown in the labor market. The impact of Trump's tariff policy and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have cast a shadow over the economic outlook, and the market will pay close attention to the Fed's new round of economic forecasts.

In the global wave of digital transformation, Hashkey's Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding pointed out that the integration of traditional industries with Web3 and AI technologies is reshaping the business landscape. This trend is not only reflected in companies seizing the initiative in intelligence by deploying decentralized AI and blockchain technology, but also in specific investment actions. For example, Nasdaq-listed Interactive Strength has invested $500 million to acquire Fetch.ai tokens, aiming to create the world's largest corporate AI token reserve. Fetch.ai's launch of the world's first decentralized large language model, with advantages in data privacy, scalability, and community-driven innovation, provides AI support for industries such as healthcare, energy, and finance. However, as companies accelerate their entry into Web3 through private equity and crypto market makers, they must also be cautious of the price volatility of crypto assets and regulatory compliance risks, ensuring strategic sustainability while grasping the innovation dividend.

Bitcoin remained volatile over the weekend, with technicals showing that BTC is currently running above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level ($104,872) and along the ascending trend line since early June. The MACD histogram flattened, indicating that the bearish momentum has weakened. If the price breaks above the 50-period moving average ($106,351) and gains ground at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($106,788), it could test $107,640 and $108,864 in the near term. Despite the heightened market volatility, Bitcoin's technical structure remains in good shape, and its overall upward trend remains solid without falling below $103,169. In addition, analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that $105,000 is a key resistance level, and if it breaks down again, Bitcoin could fall back into the $100,000 liquidity zone, providing the market with new buying opportunities. Another trader, Merlijn, believes that bitcoin is forming a "reverse head and shoulders pattern", and once it breaks through the neckline ($113,000), the price target may exceed $140,000. According to Cointelegraph, historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin could rise by 16% to 24% in the short term after a sharp rise in oil prices. Although Bitcoin is often seen as a risky asset, it has rebounded significantly in several historical events following the oil price surge. For example, after the price of oil rose to $80.50 in January 2025, Bitcoin rebounded 22% from $89,300 to $109,300, and a similar situation happened in 2024. Oil prices are climbing again, and historical data suggests that bitcoin around $102,800 could be an attractive entry point, with the goal of rising 16% to $119,200 by June 21.

Meanwhile, Ethereum recovered from $2,771 to $2,443 last week and stabilized near $2,509, causing 80,000 traders to lose $298 million. However, institutional investors continued to increase their positions, with BlackRock buying $570 million in ETH in two weeks and now holding more than 1.5 million ETH with a total value of $3.83 billion, while SharpLink Gaming acquired 176,000 ETH for $463 million. Technically, ETH is testing a key support range of $2,500 to $2,550. If support holds, it could rebound to the $2,700 to $2,800 range; Otherwise, it may pull back to $2,300 or even $2,000. It is worth noting that the supply of ETH on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in eight years, and the supply shortage may drive the price up. ETH is widely expected to break above $4,000 by the end of 2025, with CLS Global being more optimistic, with a short-term price target of $5,400 and a long-term price target of $7,000.

In terms of the market, on the evening of June 15, ZKJ and KOGE suffered a cliff-like decline on the Binance Alpha platform. The price of ZKJ plummeted from $1.98 to $0.253, a decrease of 83.64%; KOGE also suffered a heavy loss, falling from $62 to $8.48. The analysis pointed out that the plunge was triggered by the withdrawal of liquidity from multiple key addresses and a large number of sell-offs, leading to panic selling in the market and the drying up of liquidity. In addition, the 15.53 million tokens that ZKJ is about to unlock further exacerbate the selling pressure. According to Coinglass data, the amount of liquidation on the entire network in the past 24 hours reached $240 million, of which ZKJ contributed $102 million. The trading volume of the Binance Alpha platform fell for six consecutive days, trading at $777 million as of June 15, down about 51% from the high on June 8. Yesterday, ZKJ's trading volume was $417 million, KOGE's trading volume was $91.72 million, and AB's trading volume was $65.69 million.

At the same time, the SOL ecosystem may benefit from the big dump of Binance Alpha tokens and the approaching ETF, performing strongly with SOL rising 7.3% in 24 hours. The ecosystem projects Marinade rose 39.4% in 24 hours, Jito increased by 18.2%, and Kamino grew by 10%. The meme coin aura briefly reached a market cap of 235 million USD, hitting a historical high before falling back to 178 million USD. In addition, WLFI community members expect their token to launch on June 16, while the official announcement will be made tonight at 8 PM regarding an important announcement, and the current institutional OTC price is 0.1 USD.

2. Key Data (as of June 16, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $106,412 (YTD +13.94%), daily spot trading volume $25.206 billion
• ETH: $2,576.40 (Year-to-date -22.25%), Daily spot trading volume is $14.241 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 50 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.17 sat/vB ETH: 0.31 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 63.8%, ETH 9.4%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, POKT, BTC, ETH, T
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0305
• Sector Rise and Fall: SOL ecosystem increased by 8.6%; AI Meme increased by 6.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,397 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 240 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 26.5295 million USD, ETH liquidations of 39.155 million USD, and ZKJ liquidations of 102 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line of the channel (107213.54 USD), lower line of the channel (105090.50 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line of the channel (2611.58 USD), lower line of the channel (2559.87 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF inflow (as of June 13)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$302 million
• ETH ETF: -2.176 million USD (net inflow ended after 19 days)

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance will stop supporting FIS and MDT token deposits and withdrawals via BNB Chain on June 16.
• Binance will adjust the Alpha points rules on June 17 to respond to the drastic fluctuations of ZKJ and KOGE.
• The U.S. Senate will hold a final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS bill on June 17.
• Starknet: The v2 version of STRK staking will be launched on the mainnet on June 17.
• Nansen will launch the first season points program on June 17.
• Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million Tokens at 9 PM on June 16, accounting for 1.91% of the current circulation, valued at about 30.2 million USD;
• ZKsync (ZK) will unlock approximately 768 million Tokens at 4 PM on June 17, accounting for 20.91% of the current circulation, valued at about 39 million USD;
• ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million Tokens at 8:30 PM on June 17, which is 1.95% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 10.6 million USD;

Top 500 Market Cap Gainers Today: VaderAI (VADER) up 20.63%, Jito (JTO) up 16.75%, Non-Playable Coin (NPC) up 15.61%, Ribbita (TIBBIR) up 14.52%, Chintai (CHEX) up 14.04%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as ZK, ZKJ, ARB will face a large unlock, with ZK unlocking a value of approximately $39 million.
• This week's macro outlook: With the missile war led by Iran escalating, the "wartime market" for gold and crude oil may wipe out all shorts.
• This week's preview | The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions; the U.S. Senate may conduct a final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS bill.
• AguilaTrades opened a long position in BTC and is continuously increasing it, planning to raise it to 262 million USD.
• Vietnam plans to legalize cryptocurrency through the Digital Technology Law, expected to take effect on January 1st next year.
• Trend Research adds another 100,000 ETH options
• Metaplanet issues $210 million zero-interest bonds to purchase BTC
• Binance adjusts Alpha point rules to cope with the severe volatility of ZKJ and KOGE
• Binance Alpha launches SynFutures (F)
• CZ: does not own 90% of Binance shares
• Interpretation: "Big companies" target stablecoins, with Xiaomi, Ant Group, and JD already making layouts.
• Binance Alpha launches Degen (DEGEN)
• The founder of Cardano proposed to exchange 100 million ADA for BTC and stablecoins to revitalize DeFi.
• SharpLink Gaming invested $463 million to acquire 176,271 ETH, becoming the largest publicly listed holder of coins.

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and is also the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It is committed to setting new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.