#鲍威尔发言# The Federal Reserve (FED) "dovish tone" has landed, and Bitcoin surged by $8,800 in a single day! Can Bitcoin stabilize at $100,000 and kick off a new bull run?

1. Macro Policy: The Federal Reserve's "pivot" becomes the biggest catalyst for rising expectations of interest rate cuts, liquidity gates loosen.
Despite the interest rates not being cut in May, Powell clearly stated that "inflationary pressures are easing" and "uncertainty in economic outlook is rising," leading to a surge in the market's expectation of a rate cut in June from 30% to 65%.
Historical data shows that during the easing cycle, Bitcoin and gold have strengthened simultaneously. If interest rates are cut this time, the crypto market may become the biggest beneficiary.
The weakness of the US dollar resonates with safe-haven demand.
The GDP of the United States shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, and the consumer confidence index dropped to a 13-year low. Coupled with the risks of Trump's tariff policy, the US dollar index is under pressure. Bitcoin's "digital gold" property is strengthening, with its correlation to the S&P 500 declining to 29%, making it a core tool for institutions to hedge against macro risks.
2. Fund Trends: Institutions' "ammunition" has been loaded, and ETF funds continue to provide support.
BlackRock IBIT increased its holdings by 6,954 BTC in a single day, with total holdings surpassing 610,000 BTC (valued at $57.8 billion), setting a new historical high. The net inflow of 10 Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $3.3 billion in a single week, forming a pattern of "institutional support and retail following."
Options market bets on "epic breakthrough"
Deribit data shows that the open interest for the $300,000 call options expiring in June exceeds $484 million, betting on a short-term surge in Bitcoin. At the same time, leveraged trading volume has surged by 200%, with institutions accelerating their layout through a "spot + leverage" combination strategy.
3. Technical Analysis: Bulls occupy key positions, daily chart remains strong.
Bitcoin stands firm at the MA7 moving average (95,000 USD), the MACD histogram shortens, and the bearish momentum is weakening. If it breaks through the resistance level of 97,800 USD, it will open up space above 100,000 USD.
The weekly cycle pattern suggests an outbreak.
The 12-18 months following a halving are typically a period of price explosion (for example, a 536% increase in 2020). This round of halving will be completed in April 2024, and we are currently at the peak window of the cycle, with analysts predicting a target price of $156,000.
4. On-chain data: Whales are accumulating, retail investors have not "surrendered" while big players are accelerating their coin hoarding.
Addresses holding over 1 BTC increased by 7%, whale trading volume surged, and the MVRV indicator returned to a healthy range (1.74), reflecting the confidence of long-term holders. The structure of retail holdings remains stable.
88% of BTC supply is still in profit, with no large-scale sell-off. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (RPLR) has risen above 1.0, and market sentiment tends to be rational.