History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes; now might be the best time this year to buy crypto.

Besides BTC, let me choose another token that can hold 500,000 USD, I choose hyperliquid, and if it’s 5,000,000 USD, I choose SOL.

Written by: Long Ye

Let’s start with the conclusion:

(1) is now, it may be the best time to buy crypto this year.

(2) I maintain the views I expressed in my article during the bull market last December:

( Besides BTC, let me choose another token that can hold 500,000 USD. I choose hyperliquid, and if it's 5 million USD, I choose SOL.

Back to the "rhythm" itself: Structural opportunities are emerging again

Now may be one of the best times to buy Crypto this year.

This judgment is not made out of thin air. Whether from the price structure, macro signals, or on-chain data, the current market state is highly reminiscent of the "low-level restructuring" moment during the spring of 2020 pandemic—Bitcoin plummeted to $3,800 in just a few days, only to stage one of the most astonishing rebound rallies in cryptocurrency history.

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Today, the market seems to be replaying this script. At that time, the Nasdaq index entered a 3-4 week period of fluctuating recovery after a panic sell-off, while Bitcoin quickly completed its bottom formation within two weeks and then rebounded strongly in the following months.

This time, the short-term sell-off triggered by the "tariff war + new highs in U.S. bond rates" that started in early April caused BTC to briefly drop below 74,000, while SOL even temporarily fell below $100, but both have quickly stabilized.

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At present, it seems that this wave of the bottom has basically been constructed. In contrast, the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, is still in an extended consolidation range.

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In other words: The emotional correction in the cryptocurrency market this time has been faster and more decisive than in traditional markets, and the signs of stabilization have appeared earlier.

The market structure change of "weak hands turning into strong hands" is a typical characteristic before a major market rally. Looking back at 2020, Bitcoin rose over 300% within 6 months after the crash in March. If history repeats itself, the current market adjustment may be an excellent opportunity for positioning.

In terms of time and structure, Crypto has already taken the lead.

The Turning Point of Macroeconomic Capital Flow: From Misunderstanding to Active Embrace

Beyond this structural pullback, it is more noteworthy that the macro-level concept of funds is undergoing a change.

One trend that cannot be ignored is that traditional funds are pouring into the crypto market at an unprecedented rate. The passage of the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF opened the door to institutional investing. The ETFs have seen net inflows of more than $12 billion since their approval in January, according to the data.

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Total net inflow amount of spot Bitcoin ETF (USD)

It is worth noting that cryptocurrencies are transitioning from speculative tools to practical tools. Recently, I visited several foreign trade enterprises in Shenzhen and Yiwu and found that the use of USDT in cross-border trade settlements has become quite common. A boss engaged in electronic product exports admitted: "Using USDT for settlement is much faster than bank remittances, and the fees are only one-tenth of the traditional methods."

This trend is accelerating globally. In high-inflation countries like Argentina and Turkey, people are using stablecoins to preserve their assets; in Southeast Asia, more and more small and medium-sized enterprises are starting to accept cryptocurrency payments. Cryptocurrencies are transitioning from "speculative assets" to "practical tools," and this process will bring about a more durable demand support.

In the past month, I have been chatting with some friends in the country who are engaged in export business. They were not originally the target users of Crypto and had even been extremely averse to it. However, against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, geopolitical tensions, and shrinking foreign exchange channels, they have started to frequently raise some previously unimaginable questions:

• Can we find a third country for simple processing, settle exports to the US with USDT, and avoid sanctions?
• Physical goods are too uncertain, are there any virtual goods that can be done, such as NFTs?
• After the factory shuts down, how can I exchange cash to buy coins? More importantly, what coins can I trade with the time I have available?

You will find that: Crypto is no longer just an 'asset choice', but has become a resource export after the 'reality break'.

Among them, USDT is becoming increasingly common: in some cross-border settlement scenarios, USDT has already become a standard tool. In their words, "It is unrealistic not to hold BTC now."

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The Correlation Between Gold and BTC: A Historical Leading Indicator

Another point that is rarely mentioned but carries significant signal meaning is: Gold has reached a historical high and is still accelerating.

At the beginning of April, gold fell 5% in just 4 days, breaking below $3000, causing increased market panic. However, less than a week later, it rebounded to a new high, now exceeding $3300, entering a strong upward trend.

Historically, after gold prices reach a new high, Bitcoin often follows and breaks through previous highs within 100–150 days. This is not a coincidence, but a resonance signal highly related to capital flows and market structure; and gold and Bitcoin have a high correlation in macro attributes – they are both tools against fiat currency depreciation.

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If this historical pattern repeats, we may see BTC break through its previous high at the end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3, with Q4 being a potential market peak.

ETH, SOL, Hyperliquid: Three Structural Narratives and Value Differentiation

Now we come to another important question: After BTC, if we want to hold another asset, what should we choose?

I still hold the previous opinion:

• If it's an investment of $500K, I choose Hyperliquid.
• If it's a configuration above $5M, I would choose SOL.

These three represent completely different asset logics and user paths:

ETH: The infrastructure connecting on-chain finance and the real world

Regarding the core value of Ethereum, my judgment is clear: RWA is the biggest narrative for ETH's future, but the timing of its outbreak is not this year.

As the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, I now have a clearer understanding that Ethereum will be the infrastructure that combines reality and crypto, serving as a destination for institutional funds (not web3 institutions, but real-world funds with utility needs).

The key is RWA, whose fundamental value lies in combining DeFi to systematically transfer offline trade to the chain, that is, to systematically move offline trade, financing, and credit systems onto the chain.

Although the implementation of RWA is still relatively fragmented at present, the infrastructure and regulatory framework are still under construction, but the trend is already very clear. Traditional financial giants, including Blackstone, Citigroup, and BlackRock, have already begun to engage in core financial activities such as bond tokenization and cross-border settlements based on Ethereum. In the future, not only bonds but even asset classes such as stocks, gold, and carbon emission rights are also highly likely to circulate on the ETH network.

According to the data, whether it is DeFi or RWA, over 80% of projects in the two core sectors are built on Ethereum. Taking DeFi as an example, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has remained at the level of hundreds of billions of dollars for a long time, and the underlying demand is still huge.

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Therefore, in my opinion, Ethereum's role is evolving from a "smart contract platform" to an "operating system for real finance." It is like the "oil" of the digital age - supporting the continuous operation of the entire on-chain economy while also potentially becoming the underlying infrastructure of the future global financial system.

SOL: A Reflection of On-Chain Activity and Retail Narratives

SOL may not be the most technologically advanced public blockchain, but it is the hottest public blockchain for on-chain liquidity. From memecoins, GambleFi, to various projects driven by strong operations, SOL has become the main stage for retail speculation. And when retail investors are active, it means continuous liquidity. If you believe that the retail cycle will see another wave this year, then SOL is the asset with the most beta elasticity.

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SOL has a daily trading volume of hundreds of billions of dollars on DEX alone while the MEME market is fermenting.

In the future, the classification of cryptocurrencies will also change, and there may only be three types of coins: Bitcoin, mainstream coins, and MEME coins. MEME coins are not intended to replace BTC or gold, but rather represent a consensus and culture; they will not only be accepted by the public but will also become the most turbulent vortex of funds in the cryptocurrency market.

Solana is the barometer of current market sentiment. The meme coin frenzy and booming on-chain transactions have made SOL the best place for short-term speculation – like the "Las Vegas" of the cryptocurrency world – where myths of getting rich quickly are played out daily, and it is filled with high-spirited gamblers. But it is undeniable that: it is attracting the most active funds and developers globally.

Hyperliquid: The on-chain mirror of TradeFi, the perfect landing for AI trading

Hyperliquid is actually a structural narrative: it is neither a Meme nor L1/L2, but one of the core scenarios of on-chain finance: perpetual contracts + leveraged trading + high-frequency strategies.

This is the platform I have been paying the most attention to and operating on the most frequently recently. I almost perform operations here every week, not because I am following the trend, but because it really addresses a key issue - how to achieve professional-level derivatives trading in a decentralized environment.

Hyperliquid is now more suitable for professional traders, which is also why it is not recognized by a larger audience. However, with the development of AI, a large number of strategy designs and executions will be handled by AI Agents — users only need to express their trading intentions in natural language, and the AI can call complex modules on-chain to implement, such as futures arbitrage, cross-commodity hedging, grid strategies, and so on.

In the future, you won't need to perform complex operations yourself; you just need to tell the Agent: "Open a 5x leveraged ETH long on Hyperliquid, and automatically stop loss if it falls below 2000." The AI Agent will automatically break it down into: contract calls, slippage control, on-chain gas optimization, etc., to help you complete complex trading operations in the most efficient way.

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For example, if you want to earn double returns from "exchange price difference + funding rate" when the BTC price fluctuates, manual operation requires: simultaneously monitoring 5 exchanges, calculating the funding rate breakeven point, dynamically adjusting the margin, and preventing flash crashes. This is too difficult for ordinary people, but for an AI Agent, it only requires a series of basic analyses and operations such as price difference capture, funding rate optimization, and risk control response.

In terms of speed, accuracy, and even emotions, AI Agents have advantages that humans cannot match. Of course, AI Agents will not replace human traders, but will make professional-level strategies as simple as ordering takeout through "human-machine collaboration." Hyperliquid, being highly open and with clear on-chain settlement, is very suitable as the trading backend for future "AI x DeFi" scenarios. Therefore, the core battlefield of this transformation is likely to be in on-chain derivative protocols like Hyperliquid.

Summary: Bull markets are always born in skepticism and grow in hesitation.

This round of market activity reminds me of the turbulent yet opportunity-filled spring of 2020—when the market bottomed out in panic and then embarked on an epic rebound. And now, it seems the same script is being played out: gold has first broken through historic highs, like the sound of a starting gun; traditional funds are quietly entering the market through USDT; and more Smart Money has begun to consider how to position themselves for the next round of AI-driven trading on Hyperliquid.

In fact, the market structure is very clear: BTC is the digital gold, ETH is the operating system of real finance, SOL is the main battlefield of retail liquidity and sentiment, and Hyperliquid has become the platform for professional traders and future AI trading behavior. And as AI formally intervenes in the design and execution of transaction behaviors, Hyperliquid is likely to become the next round of on-chain behavior migration.

Those who are still waiting for a "better entry point" may not realize: when foreign trade bosses start discussing USDT settlement, when gold breaks through its previous high, and when AI begins to automatically execute arbitrage strategies, the time left for spectators in the market is limited. Many trends do not wait for you to fully understand them before they happen—and now is the window that is still open for you to get on board.