Standard Chartered reiterates: Bitcoin target price of 200,000 USD by 2025

Standard Chartered Bank's long-term price forecast for BTC: reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.

Source: cryptoslate

Compiled by: Blockchain Knight

Geoffrey Kendrick, the global head of Crypto Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that despite BTC strengthening its position as a hedge in recent weeks, its price has yet to reflect the increasing signs of systemic risk.

In a client report dated April 22, Kendrick warned that the political pressure facing the Federal Reserve is exacerbating tensions in the bond market, and this tension may soon spread to the Crypto asset market.

He pointed out that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield premium has risen to its highest level in 12 years, stating that this trend reflects increasing market concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and especially the possibility of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell being replaced.

Kendrick stated: "Currently, actions that threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve by potentially replacing Powell fall entirely within the category of government-related risks. BTC should reflect this change soon."

Kendrick classifies BTC as a tool for hedging against two different types of systemic threats: one is a collapse of the private sector, such as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023; the other is a public sector credibility shock, like central bank interventions or concerns over sovereign debt.

Kendrick emphasized that although BTC usually behaves as a risk asset under normal conditions, its true function is revealed during macro pressure events. He added that the recent surge in term premiums is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risk, representing the kind of environment in which BTC historically reestablishes its hedging narrative.

Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: while the term premium has risen significantly over the past few weeks, the BTC price has stagnated below 100,000 USD. He attributed this lag to investors temporarily focusing on trade-related concerns, including tariffs on the tech sector, which have weakened BTC's response.

He wrote: "Due to investors' attention being temporarily focused on the poor performance of tech stocks, BTC has lagged behind the term premium. However, when the focus returns to the credibility issues of central banks, BTC will restore its hedging function."

Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reaffirmed Standard Chartered's long-term price forecast for BTC: reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.

He attributes this expected increase to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels through spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market.

Kendrick had previously modeled the increase in the proportion of BTC in the optimized gold - BTC portfolio, believing that as volatility decreases, this will support the price of BTC rising in the future, especially under the current circumstances of expanding institutional access under the leadership of the U.S. government.

Kendrick stated: "This might be the condition needed to achieve the next historical high for BTC."