Macquarie downgrades ZTO Express (ZTO.N) to Neutral, lowers target price to $21.2

June 27th, Jinshi Data: Morgan Stanley released a report, lowering the profit forecast for ZTO Express (ZTO.N) for the next two years by 2% and 4%, reflecting the pressure on revenue. The target price of US stocks has been lowered from $25.8 to $21.2, and the investment rating has been downgraded from outperform to neutral. The bank expects ZTO Express' parcel volume to increase by 11% and 13% in the second quarter and the whole year, which is the lower limit of market expectations, implying a decline of 1.2 percentage points in market share on an annual basis. The bank believes that ZTO Express' more cautious cost control and excellent service quality can ensure stable profitability. It also expects unit costs to continue to improve, driving unit gross profit to increase by 8% on an annual basis, and expects adjusted net profit to increase by 19% to 10.7 billion yuan in 2024.