Bitwise: BTC will still be the best-performing asset in the world over the next 10 years.

Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Translated by Golden Finance

Later this week, Bitwise will release an important new research report - the first "Bitwise Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Expectations."

The report will be based on data to predict the return rate, volatility, and correlation of Bitcoin over the next ten years.

At the end of this memo, I will share a summary of our findings, but first, I want to tell a little story to illustrate why this report is so important.

Why Long-Term Capital Market Expectations Are Crucial

The long-term capital market is expected to play a key role in the process of institutional investors constructing their investment portfolios.

Every year, major companies on Wall Street and leading asset management firms gather their top talent and vast amounts of data to write in-depth reports predicting future returns on stocks, bonds, real estate, and private credit.

These reports form the basis for many institutional investors to build their portfolios, providing them with core forecasts to mix various assets in order to achieve specific return and risk objectives. They may be the most important and anticipated reports released by most companies each year.

Since 2017, Bitwise has been dedicated to helping professional investors seize opportunities in the cryptocurrency space. Below is the number of times large institutional investors have inquired about our long-term capital market expectations for Bitcoin each year:

2017: 0 times

2018: 0 times

2019: 0 times

2020: 0 times

2021: 0 times

2022: 0 times

2023: 0 times

2024: 0 times

2025: 12 times

Twelve times may not sound like a lot, but it is actually significant: most new requests come from large national account platforms that manage hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars in assets. Multiply twelve by 500 billion, and you can understand the enormous amount of funds involved.

So, what changes have occurred?

Before this year, we received zero requests for two reasons: 1) Most large platforms have not yet approved Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs); 2) Professional investors mostly regarded Bitcoin as a special, opportunistic investment. Now they are beginning to inquire about long-term capital market expectations, which indicates that their perspective has changed: Bitcoin is no longer seen as a one-time investment on the periphery of a portfolio but is starting to be considered for inclusion in the core.

For Bitcoin to mature into a true institutional-grade asset class, it is by no means an overnight process. This requires hard-won advancements in processes and infrastructure, as well as the relentless efforts of many individuals. This process truly began with the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, gaining momentum earlier this year as these ETFs gradually received approval on national account platforms, and it is accelerating as these platforms begin to incorporate Bitcoin into their model portfolios.

But there is no doubt: all of this is happening, brick by brick, becoming a reality.

What are the research results of Bitwise?

Alright, that's enough for the opening remarks. What does our research actually indicate?

I won't reveal everything; you'll need to read the complete report yourself. But I can share a little bit first.

Through conservative analytical methods, we predict that over the next 10 years, Bitcoin will become the best-performing major asset globally, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.3%, and its volatility will steadily decline (albeit still at a high level). The table below provides context for our predictions by comparing them with forecasts for other asset classes from companies such as JPMorgan and BlackRock.

2025 to 2035 Forecast: Bitcoin's Returns, Volatility, and Correlation with Major Asset Classes

Source: Bitwise Asset Management

The return rate and volatility predictions for Bitcoin are set by Bitwise. Predictions for other asset classes are averages of estimates found in the capital market reports of JPMorgan, Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), BlackRock, and Vanguard, which may be based on different indices and date ranges.

The specific categories of assets are as follows: Bitcoin: Bitcoin spot price. Commodities: Deutsche Bank DBIQ Optimal Yield Diversified Commodity Index Total Return. Gold: Gold spot price. Hedge Funds: Bloomberg Macro Hedge Fund Index. Private Credit: Indxx Private Credit Index. Private Equity: S&P Listed Private Equity Total Return Index. Real Estate: Morgan Stanley Capital International US Real Estate Investment Trust Index Total Return. US Bonds: Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. US Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Index. Note: Traditionally, a correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is defined as "low" or "no" correlation.

For more details and to support our data with quantitative and qualitative analysis, please feel free to read the full report.

You can register here to obtain this report and other future research results from Bitwise: