Bitcoin remains in high-level consolidation, with macro and corporate trends set to dominate this week's crypto market.

After last week’s consolidation, the price of Bitcoin remains stable, while most alts have experienced a pullback. With the Fed's interest rate decision, the release of earnings reports from tech giants, and the inflow of ETF funds approaching, the entire crypto market is entering a wait-and-see mode. This week’s market Fluctuation may intensify, and these factors could determine the direction of the next bull run.

Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Data Correlation As of last Sunday, Bitcoin fluctuated between $116,000 and $119,000, while Ethereum hovered below the key resistance level of $4,000. The market is generally focused on the Fed's interest rate decision this Wednesday, which is expected to maintain the current interest rate level of 4.25% to 4.50%, despite political pressure from Trump for a rate cut.

Inflation data continues to rise, becoming one of the concerns for the Fed. In June, the annual rate of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.4%, which has increased to 2.7% in July. Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies will closely follow the release of several key economic data, including:

  • Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday
  • Wednesday's GDP data
  • Thursday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index In addition, the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday is also a core indicator for the Fed's monetary policy formulation.

Tech Giants' Earnings Reports Influence Market Sentiment In addition to the interest rate decision, the second quarter earnings season is also one of the focal points this week. Large banks such as JPMorgan and Bank of America have taken the lead in releasing their earnings reports, while the market's attention will turn to the "Magnificent Seven": Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Meta (META).

More than 50% of the companies in the S&P 500 index will announce their earnings reports this month. Current data shows that corporate profit growth exceeds expectations, which is an important factor for the S&P 500 reaching a historical high. As Bitcoin has a certain correlation with the S&P 500 index, the performance of these companies may also indirectly affect the crypto market.

ETF fund inflows support Bitcoin and Ethereum trends The spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract inflows from investors. According to data, last week saw a net inflow of $72 million for the Bitcoin ETF, the smallest increase since June, but it still maintains positive capital flow; during the same period, the Ethereum ETF attracted over $5.1 billion in asset inflows.

In addition, the crypto market continues to benefit from the growth of enterprise-level holdings, including the ongoing purchases by companies such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), MetaPlanet, and SharpLink.

Trump's tariff policy causes market uncertainty Another market focus is the Trump administration's new round of tariff threats against major countries. Last Sunday, the United States and the European Union reached an agreement at the last minute, imposing a 15% tariff on most European exports, thereby avoiding a trade war. The agreement will take effect on August 1, and European officials have called it a "sustainable" solution.

However, countries like South Korea, Mexico, Brazil, and Canada are still negotiating with the Trump administration, and whether an agreement can be reached before the deadline remains uncertain. Once a full-scale trade war breaks out, it will intensify global economic tensions, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and alts.

Conclusion With the convergence of several key factors, including Fed policy direction, tech stock earnings reports, ETF capital flows, and the global trade situation, the crypto market may experience significant fluctuations this week. Whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can break through the current range depends on investors' reactions to macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals. For crypto users, the current stage is a crucial window for observing policy signals and capital dynamics.

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