Crypto Market Weekly Report: Global Trade Tariffs Escalate, Causing Market Turmoil as Bitcoin Falls Back to Yearly Line

This week, the crypto market was significantly affected by changes in global trade policies. The price of Bitcoin fell from $82379.98 at the beginning of the week to $78370.75, with a total weekly decline of 4.87% and a volatility of 13.92%. Trading volume increased noticeably, and the price operated within a downward channel. After approaching the upper boundary of the channel, a decline occurred due to the impact of relevant U.S. policies, and it is currently stabilizing temporarily near the annual line (365-day moving average).

Changes in Global Economic Policy

In early April, the U.S. government announced the implementation of a "reciprocal tariff" policy, establishing a minimum benchmark tariff of 10%, with higher rates imposed on certain countries. This decision exceeded market expectations and triggered turmoil in the global financial markets. China immediately announced countermeasures, imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States.

As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply this week, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices dropping by 10.02%, 9.08%, and 7.86%, respectively. Tech giants such as Apple and Nvidia saw declines of more than 13%. The entire U.S. stock market lost more than $5 trillion in market value this week.

Employment Data and Monetary Policy Expectations

The U.S. March non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the U.S. economy remains strong, but new tariff policies could weigh on economic growth and inflation.

Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have changed significantly. As of the weekend, traders generally expect four rate cuts this year, with a probability of over 90% for a rate cut in June.

Crypto Market Capital Flow

This week, the crypto market as a whole showed a trend of capital outflow, with a total outflow of 333 million USD, of which Bitcoin spot ETFs and stablecoins experienced outflows of 178 million and 108 million USD respectively. This breaks the previous trend of net capital inflow for four consecutive weeks.

Although the scale of capital outflow in the crypto market is relatively mild compared to the dramatic fluctuations of the US stock market, caution is still needed for potential further selling pressure.

Market Selling Pressure Analysis

On-chain data shows that the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges this week reached 188614.7 coins, and the selling behavior of short-term holders has intensified. The number of Bitcoins held by centralized exchanges increased by 3116.1 coins, indicating that selling pressure has accumulated.

It is worth noting that since late February, the short-term holder group has been in a state of unrealized losses for most of the time, with the recent unrealized loss ratio reaching 16%, setting a new record for the largest unrealized losses in this cycle. This group is under immense pressure, and its collapse could lead to further price declines.

Long-term holders continue to serve as market stabilizers, increasing their holdings by 53,300 Bitcoins this week.

Market Outlook

Unless the US stock market rebounds or the Federal Reserve adopts loose policies such as interest rate cuts, the buying power in the market may be difficult to significantly enhance, and the crypto market may struggle to gain upward momentum in the short term.

According to the market analysis tools, the current Bitcoin cycle indicator is 0.375, in an upward continuation phase. However, the uncertainty of global economic policies may continue to affect market sentiment, and investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor the developments in the global economic and trade situation.