Crypto market Q3 macro report: Selective bull run has emerged, institutions adopt to drive structural trends.

1. Macroeconomic turning point has emerged: Policy environment shifts to positive

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, a significant shift occurred in the macro situation. The previously restrictive policy environment for digital assets is transforming into a systemic driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to stimulus, and the accelerated construction of a global encryption regulatory framework, the crypto market is experiencing a structural re-evaluation.

In terms of monetary policy, the liquidity environment in the United States has entered a critical turning point. Although the Federal Reserve continues to emphasize "data dependence," the market has formed a consensus on interest rate cuts within the year. Under political pressure, the real interest rates in the United States may decline from high levels between the second half of 2025 and 2026, opening up upside potential for risk assets, especially digital assets.

Fiscal policy is also making synchronized efforts. Fiscal expansion represented by the "Great American Act" is unleashing unprecedented capital effects. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the demand for digital assets. The U.S. Treasury is becoming more aggressive in its national debt issuance strategy, making "printing money for growth" a consensus once again.

The regulatory attitude has also undergone a qualitative change. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that the U.S. has allowed income-generating digital assets to enter the traditional financial system. The SEC is working on establishing a unified standard, aiming to create a replicable compliance product channel. The competition for compliance in the Asian region is heating up, with sovereign capital and internet giants starting to lay out stablecoins.

In addition, the risk appetite of traditional financial markets is recovering, and capital is flowing back into blockchain and on-chain structured yield assets. Driven by both policy and market factors, a new bull run is brewing, not driven by sentiment, but rather a process of value reassessment under institutional drivers.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutions Lead the Next Bull Run

What is currently worth paying attention to in the crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of cleansing and restructuring, the structure of market participants has undergone a historic "reshuffle": speculative users have been marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aimed at allocation have become the core force.

The circulation chips of Bitcoin are accelerating towards "lock-up." The purchase volume of listed companies has exceeded the net purchase scale of ETFs. Enterprises view Bitcoin as a strategic cash alternative, possessing stronger holding resilience.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The ETH staking ETF implies that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. Once the staking yield mechanism is packaged by the ETF, it will fundamentally change traditional asset management's perception of crypto assets.

Companies are also starting to participate directly in the on-chain financial market. Bitmine has increased its holdings in ETH, and DeFi Development is investing in the Solana ecosystem, representing companies taking concrete actions to build a new generation of encryption financial ecology. This capital injection, which has a flavor of industrial mergers and acquisitions, stabilized market sentiment and enhanced the valuation anchoring ability of the underlying protocols.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional finance is also actively positioning itself. The crypto futures on CME are hitting new highs, driven by the entry of hedge funds, structured product providers, and others. These players will enhance market depth through operations based on volatility arbitrage and funding structure games.

The decline in retail investor activity has also reinforced the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, and the market is currently in a "hand-over consolidation period." The chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, and institutions are quietly "building a bottom position."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly taking shape. From large banks to emerging retail platforms, all are expanding their capabilities in trading and staking of crypto assets. This not only enhances the usability of crypto assets within the fiat currency system but also provides them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, and it is a reshaping of the value discovery logic. A institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, more enduring, and more thorough.

3. The Era of Imitation Season: Moving Towards a "Selective Bull Run"

The current "altcoin season" is entering a new phase: the widespread bullish trend is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the crypto market maturing, and it is also an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From the structural signal perspective, the chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of consolidation. The ETH/BTC pair has welcomed a strong rebound for the first time, with whale addresses accumulating a large number of tokens, indicating that the main funds are beginning to reprice primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

The ETF application has become a new anchor point for the thematic structure. In particular, the Solana spot ETF has been regarded as the next "market consensus event". Investors are beginning to position themselves around staked assets, and governance tokens are also showing independent market trends. Asset performance will revolve around "ETF potential, real yield distribution, institutional allocation", presenting a differentiated evolution.

The logic in the DeFi field has also undergone fundamental changes. Users have shifted from "points airdrop type" to "cash flow type" DeFi, with protocol income, stablecoin yields, and other metrics becoming core indicators. Liquidity providers place greater importance on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and risk structure. This transformation has led to the emergence of a number of innovative projects.

Capital choices have also become more "realistic". The RWA-backed stablecoin strategy is favored by institutions, and cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have become key factors. Infrastructure built around L1 and composable protocols have become the new valuation core.

The speculative portion is also shifting. While meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up the price" is over. The strategy of "platform rotation trading" has emerged, but it carries high risks and lacks sustainability. Capital is now more inclined to allocate towards projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and are supported by strong narratives.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." The crypto market is entering a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but an upgrade. The future belongs to those who understand the narrative logic, comprehend the financial structure, and are willing to quietly accumulate in a "quiet market."

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Balancing Core Allocation and Event-Driven Strategies

The market layout for Q3 2025 needs to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven local bursts." From long-term Bitcoin allocations to Solana ETF thematic trading, and then to DeFi real yield protocols and RWA treasury rotations, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment of ETF inflows, continuous corporate accumulation, and the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resilience and a capital siphoning effect. Corporate buying has become the biggest variable in the market, and the "structural accumulation" characteristic of ETFs has changed the traditional price trajectory of the halving cycle.

Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Multiple leading institutions have submitted applications for SOL spot ETFs, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for pre-deployment. At the current price level, SOL possesses strong cost-effectiveness and Beta elasticity.

DeFi portfolios are worth continuing to restructure. Current focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects like SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., adopt an equal-weight allocation method to capture relative returns. These types of protocols often exhibit "slow capital return and delayed outburst" characteristics, and should be treated with a mid-line allocation mentality.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, and it is recommended to limit it to within 5% of the total asset net value, managing positions with an options mindset. For contract targets launched by Binance and others, a "quick in and out" strategy framework should be established.

Another key in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layouts. The market is undergoing a transition from an "information vacuum" to a "period of intensive event releases." With the Solana ETF review node approaching, a "policy + capital resonance" market is expected from mid-August to early September. These types of event layouts should be anticipated in advance and gradually built up.

In addition, attention should be paid to the increasing momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 to promote tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration; projects like $H and $SAHARA may become "hot spots" within marginal sectors.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must shift to a hybrid strategy of "anchored by core, winged by events". Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators—each part corresponds to different position weights and trading rhythms. In the new environment where the ETF capital base continues to expand, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns".

V. Conclusion: A New Round of Wealth Migration Has Quietly Begun

Although the market has not yet returned to "mass frenzy" on the surface, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing. Bitcoin has become a new reserve component on the balance sheets of global enterprises, and the infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are completing their evolution from "narrative bubble" to "system takeover."

The altcoin season has changed. The next round of market trends will be more deeply tied to three key anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide institutions with stable return expectations, assets that can attract stable capital through ETF channels, and DeFi projects that truly have RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle.

For ordinary investors, the current period is a golden time for large funds to quietly complete their positions. The key lies in the reconstruction of position structures rather than the randomness of speculative games. Whether it is the institutional acquisition of Bitcoin, the ETF narrative of Solana, the reconstruction of the cash flow valuation system in DeFi, the globalization trend of stablecoins, or the establishment of a new order for L2, the third quarter of 2025 will be a prelude to this wealth migration.

The next bull run will reward those who think a step ahead of the market. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, information sources, and trading rhythm. Wealth is not distributed at the peak but quietly shifts before dawn.