Bitcoin Halving One Year Anniversary: New Cycle Characteristics and Long-term Holder Profit Analysis

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Bitcoin Halving One Year Anniversary: New Cycle Shows Different Trends

It has been a year since the last Bitcoin Halving, and this cycle presents distinctly different characteristics compared to previous ones. Unlike the explosive growth seen after past halvings, this round has seen a relatively mild increase of only 31%, while the increase during the same period in the previous cycle was as high as 436%.

At the same time, long-term holder indicators such as the MVRV ratio show a significant decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and the upside potential is being compressed. These changes may suggest that Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterized not by parabolic rises, but by more gradual growth driven by institutions.

Bitcoin Halving One Year Later: Why Does This Cycle Look Very Different?

The uniqueness of this cycle

The development trajectory of this Bitcoin cycle is clearly different from previous ones, which may indicate that the market's response to the Halving event is changing.

In the early cycles (especially from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), Bitcoin typically experienced strong upward movements after Halving. This period was often accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price trends, primarily driven by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle is showing a different development path. Prices did not accelerate after the Halving but instead began to soar ahead of October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025 and a pullback in late February. This early upward movement sharply contrasts with historical patterns, where past Halvings have typically been catalysts for significant price increases.

The reasons for this shift are diverse. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors; it is increasingly seen as a mature financial instrument. The increased participation of institutional investors, along with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another obvious sign of this evolution is that the intensity of each cycle is weakening. As Bitcoin's market capitalization grows, the explosive growth seen in the early years is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, during the 2020 to 2024 cycle, Bitcoin rose by 436% one year after the Halving. In contrast, the growth during the same period of the current cycle is only 31%, much more moderate.

This transition may signify that Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driving force, as other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funds are playing a bigger role.

It is worth noting that in previous cycles, there were also phases of consolidation and correction before recovering the upward trend. Although the current phase may feel slow or lack excitement, it could represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increase.

This cycle may continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not experience a dramatic top bubble burst, but rather present a more sustained and structurally solid upward trend, which is driven more by fundamentals than speculation.

The MVRV ratio of long-term holders reflects market maturity

The market value of long-term holders (LTH) and the MVRV ratio have always been reliable indicators of unrealized profits, showing the profits gained by long-term investors before they start to sell. However, this value has shown a downward trend over time.

During the cycle from 2016 to 2020, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating substantial unrealized profits and a clear formation of a top. In the cycle from 2020 to 2024, this peak sharply declined to 12.2, despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high at that time.

In this cycle, the highest value of the LTH MVRV ratio so far is only 4.35, showing a significant decline. This indicates that the profits obtained by long-term holders are far lower than in past cycles, despite the substantial increase in the price of Bitcoin. This trend is evident: the multiple of returns in each cycle is decreasing.

The explosive upward space for Bitcoin is being compressed, and the market is maturing. As the market matures, explosive returns become naturally harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.

The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive up prices. However, this does not mean that this cycle has already peaked. Previous cycles usually include long periods of consolidation or slight pullback phases before reaching new highs.

As the role of institutional investors becomes increasingly important, the accumulation phase may be extended. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

If the MVRV ratio peak decline trend continues, it may strengthen the view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a frenzied, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth model. The most intense price increases may have already passed, especially for investors who entered the market late in the cycle.

Bitcoin Halving a Year Later: Why Does This Cycle Look Very Different?

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Anon4461vip
· 6h ago
Has the bull run ended? Typical
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SandwichTradervip
· 6h ago
This time the old suckers are really confused.
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RektButStillHerevip
· 6h ago
Halving has turned into a vegetable pancake, who still follows this?
View OriginalReply0
CryingOldWalletvip
· 6h ago
New tactics for institutions to Be Played for Suckers?
View OriginalReply0
0xLostKeyvip
· 6h ago
The trend has already weakened to this point.
View OriginalReply0
NullWhisperervip
· 6h ago
hmm... technically speaking, market maturity = lower gains. fascinating edge case tbh
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