US stocks are all rising, Ethereum has been fluctuating for 25 consecutive days, which may repeat the mid-2021 market trend.

Market Observation

U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with tech stocks performing prominently. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased for the fourth consecutive trading day, as a well-known chip company surpassed a certain software giant in market capitalization, reclaiming the title of the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with a current market cap of $3.45 trillion. Stocks related to stablecoins in the Hong Kong market continued to strengthen, with several related companies' share prices rising significantly. One company's stock price surged mainly due to its early investment in a stablecoin issuer, and the issuer's recent application for a U.S. IPO became a catalyst.

An economist from a financial institution predicts that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, but might choose to make a significant reduction of 50 basis points at that time. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-off and will not continue to affect the economy. The OECD has significantly lowered its growth forecast for the US economy to 1.6% and warns that the trade policies of a certain political figure are dragging down global economic development. Investors are closely watching the May employment report to be released this Friday to assess the economic situation.

An analyst stated that 2025 will be a key milestone for generative AI, transitioning from technological breakthroughs to widespread applications. Currently, AI is mainly used in the financial sector for traditional asset management and quantitative trading, but in the future, it is expected to better adapt to the digital asset market through optimized market-making strategies. Additionally, building AI-powered Web3 infrastructure, such as smart contract security audits and digital content assetization, will promote the synergistic development of AI and the Web3 ecosystem.

The Bitcoin market is experiencing increased volatility, showing a short-term trend of fluctuating upwards. In terms of the political environment, both Poland and South Korea have elected presidents who support cryptocurrencies. Despite the market news being mostly positive, the price of Bitcoin has not shown significant rise. A digital asset research director at a certain bank has issued a warning that currently 61 listed companies hold a total of 673,800 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.2% of the total supply. If the price of Bitcoin falls below these companies' average purchase price by 22%, it could trigger forced sell-offs by the companies. Referring to the case in 2022 where a company sold 7,202 Bitcoins when the price was 22% below the cost price, if Bitcoin falls below $90,000, about half of the companies' positions may face a risk of loss. This indicates that although the accumulation of corporate positions has increased buying pressure, it also lays the groundwork for potential selling risks.

Ethereum has shown relatively stable performance, oscillating around $2600 for 25 days. The US Ethereum ETF has increased its holdings for 12 consecutive days, with an asset management company owning approximately $4 billion in ETH through the ETF. Analysis indicates that Ethereum may face a critical turning point, facing a choice between a pump or a drop. On-chain data shows that a suspected whale or institution has purchased 108,278 Ethereum (approximately $283 million) through OTC methods. An OTC wallet from a digital asset company has withdrawn 89,000 ETH (approximately $234 million) from exchanges in the past 12 hours and subsequently transferred a total of 108,278 ETH to a specific address. An analyst pointed out that Ethereum is striving to maintain $2500 as a support level and solidify its position as the low point of the macro range between $2500 and $4000. The current trend is similar to a specific position in mid-2021; if successful, Ethereum may enter a new round of range-bound market activity.

A research institution pointed out that despite Bitcoin continuously breaking historical highs to attract institutional funds, the altcoin market has stagnated, with ongoing token unlocks and a lack of new narratives becoming bottlenecks for development. Solana tokens have recently underperformed, fluctuating around $150. Its meme coin platform plans to raise $1 billion through token sales, with a valuation of $4 billion. Although the official release time has not been confirmed, the platform's social media accounts hinted that it may go live within two weeks, which could put pressure on the entire Solana ecosystem with potential capital outflows. Notably, early this morning, news emerged that a political figure would launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application, encouraging supporters to buy meme coins. This news led to a brief 40% rise in a certain NFT platform's token. However, the parties involved later denied any connection to the project, causing the token to pull back nearly 20% from its peak.

Key Data (as of June 4, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,723 (Year-to-date +12.73%), Daily spot trading volume $25.243 billion
• Ethereum: $2,616.39 (Year-to-date -21.69%), Daily Spot Trading Volume is $14.58 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 57 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2.63 sat/vB ETH: 4.36 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.1%, Ether 9.6%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0247
• Sector performance: AI down 2.1%; Meme down 1.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,138 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $148 million, including $25.52 million in BTC liquidations, $35.96 million in ETH liquidations, and $8.75 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (106908.13 USD), Lower Channel Line (104791.13 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel (2588.05 USD), lower line (2536.80 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flow (as of June 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$378 million (ending a 3-day outflow)
• Ethereum ETF: +$109 million (net inflow for 12 consecutive days)

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts on June 5.
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens in the near future.
• The ADP employment figures for May in the US and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 will be released.

Top 500 largest market cap rises today: 0×0.ai (0×0) rose 67.69%, Acet (ACT) rose 28.59%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) rose 23.39%, Magic Eden (ME) rose 22.03%, Animecoin (ANIME) rose 21.70%.

Hot News

• The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF reached 109 million USD yesterday, marking the 12th consecutive day of net inflow.
• It is suspected that a certain institution has purchased over 100,000 ETH through OTC and now holds nearly 140,000 ETH.
• A certain asset management company's Bitcoin spot ETF has entered the top 25 ETFs in the United States, with assets reaching 72.4 billion dollars in just 1.4 years.
• A certain project party transferred 150 million tokens and sent 20 million of them to a specific address.
• A Spanish coffee chain plans to invest over $1.1 billion in Bitcoin, transforming into a "Bitcoin-first" company.
• A certain politician's family denies involvement in a specific wallet project, and the related platform stated it was an official collaboration.
• CEO of a certain company: Liquidated cryptocurrencies at the end of last year, earning 570 million yuan, of which 80% was distributed as dividends to shareholders.
• A stablecoin company transferred over 37,000 BTC to a specific institution, worth nearly 4 billion USD.
• A certain project's airdrop will start in June, with 25% released immediately and the remaining 75% unlocked linearly in NFT form.
• The CEO of a certain project has stepped down, and a former exchange executive has taken over.
• A company plans to issue 2.5 million preferred shares to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
• Insider: A certain project plans to raise $1 billion through token sales, with a valuation of $4 billion.
• Ethereum co-founder states they are in talks with sovereign wealth funds for infrastructure cooperation.