Polymarket: When encryption prediction meets the real world

Imagine a place where you can bet on anything - from election results, economic trends, celebrity relationships, to even the next pope. Welcome toPolymarketA prediction market platform is born in the United States, driven by encryption technology, transforming public curiosity into tradable probabilities. In this article, we will take you through the core mechanisms, background, and how Polymarket is gradually becoming a barometer of global public sentiment. The article covers not only why the odds of Trump winning the 2024 election have soared and the probability of the next black pope exceeding 10%, but also includes a practical chart to quickly browse the hottest trading topics on Polymarket.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a blockchain-based encryption prediction market platform founded in 2020 (source: Polymarket - Wikipedia). Simply put, this platform allows users to bet on the outcome of future events using encryption currencies. It was founded by New York entrepreneur Shayne Coplan, who was only 22 years old at the time, and operates on the Polygon blockchain, using USDC (stablecoin) for transactions (source as above). On Polymarket, you can buy shares of “yes” or “no” for specific events, with the prices of these shares representing the probability of the event occurring. For example, you can buy shares of “yes” for “it will rain tomorrow,” or buy shares of “no” for “Bitcoin will not exceed $100,000 this year” - each price reflects the collective wisdom of the market.

The platform’s biggest feature is its decentralized and non-custodial architecture: no bookmakers, no intermediaries, just you, your wallet, and market consensus based on the chain. Polymarket quickly rose in the 2020 encryption wave and became one of the most innovative prediction platforms globally (source: Animoca Brands’ analysis of Polymarket). Despite regulatory issues, Polymarket had to implement IP restrictions on U.S. users in 2022 (reference: CFTC settlement). However, Polymarket did not choose to remain silent but seized the opportunity to hire a former CFTC chairman as an advisor, accelerating the path to compliance.

Today, Polymarket claims to be the ‘world’s largest prediction market,’ inviting global users to use encryption technology to bet on political, technical, economic, and pop culture topics, expressing their views with money.

Consensus-based real-time public opinion survey

One of the most attractive aspects of Polymarket is that it canReal-time reflection of public sentimentSince participants are betting real money, the odds are usually faster and more real than traditional polls. Once the news is released, markets on Polymarket may experience drastic changes within minutes, while traditional institutions often take days or even weeks to adjust survey results. In other words, it’s like a ‘collective crystal ball’ on the chain.

This mechanism has demonstrated significant accuracy in multiple examples. For example 2024 United States presidential electionThis is the largest single market in Polymarket history, with trading volume exceeding33 billion dollarsThe final market forecast results are accurate, even better than most polling agencies. It can be seen that when thousands of people ‘vote’ with their wallets, the collective accuracy of the forecast is often surprising. This is not just speculation, but a decentralized real-time public opinion survey.

For example, the event of the sudden death of the Pope. After Pope Francis passed away, the market on Polymarket regarding ‘Will there be a new Pope in 2025’ quickly surged from the original 33% probability to 99%, a typical ‘chain sensor’.

Political heat soaring: Trump 2024 prediction market frenzy

Politics has always been a strong suit of Polymarket. Especially on the eve of the 2024 general election, the platform has almost become a 24/7 presidential barometer. At that time,The probability of Trump’s victory once reached 66% on the platform., far higher than the results of many mainstream opinion polls. This indicates that many encryption traders are optimistic about the opportunities he has won, and even bet in advance.

Why are his odds so high? Polymarket traders take into account trends in public opinion polls, economic conditions, and even personal intuition. When there were still doubts about Biden’s reelection and rumors were flying about Harris’s possible candidacy, the platform once discussed the hypothetical option of ‘Trump vs. Harris’.

By the end of 2024, the total market trading volume related to the US president has exceeded27 billion dollarsNevertheless, platform data still shows a clear trend: a large number of encryption users are ‘voting’ with their coins to support Trump’s return to the White House.

Polymarket’s political predictions are not limited to the United States. For example, on the platform, you can see,Will the United States fall into decline in 2025 (current probability is about 56%)、Is there a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine (about 48%)In some cases, these data are also cited by financial institutions and the media as benchmarks for public expectations. In political forecasting, the ‘gamification’ trend is vividly displayed on Polymarket.

From the Pope to Taylor: Cultural trends also have ‘markets’.

In addition to politics, Polymarket has also attracted public interest in popular culture, even bringing some controversial issues into the prediction market. For example, when the Pope dies,Will the next pope be black?The prediction market of Gate has been launched, and the related probabilities have exceeded 10%. Although it seems low, considering that there has never been a Black Pope in history, this increase is quite amazing.

At the same time,约Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis KelceThis romantic vibe has also been brought to Polymarket, where a market has been set up for ‘Will they break up in 2024?’ And the result? The market only gives the probability of breaking up.12%Most gamblers still believe that the “chosen couple” can make it to the end of the year.

As for whether TikTok will be banned in the United States? The market currently only provides3%Probability is almost synonymous with ‘Arabian Nights’. Obviously, most encryption players don’t really think the US government will ‘pull the plug’.

Here is an overview of some active market current data on Polymarket:

• Will the United States enter a decline in 2025? -约56%(slightly pessimistic)
• Will the Russia-Ukraine war stop before the end of 2025? -约48%(Basic 5v5)
• Will Trump win the election in 2024? -约66%(Overall market bullish)
• Will the next pope be black? -约10–12%(Possibility of breaking historical records)
• 💔 Will Taylor and Kelce break up in 2024? -约12%(Fans can rest assured)
• 🚫Will the United States ban TikTok in 2024? -约3%(almost impossible)

These probabilities are not set in stone - they will fluctuate in real time with the release of news and more user participation in trading. But each percentage essentially represents the collective prediction of the public for future events. This phenomenon is very interesting: whether it’s a serious political event or a far-fetched hypothetical question, they can find a place in the prediction market. You may even see gamblers engaging in heated debates, sharing analysis, or just teasing each other in the comments section (“Do you really believe that aliens will visit this year?”). Polymarket has established a platform that allowsPolitical enthusiasts, cryptocurrency traders, and pop culture enthusiasts collide and meet each otherThe community makes predictive trading not only a financial activity, but also a social experience.

Illustration: The odds distribution of some forecast events on Polymarket.If Trump wins the election in 2024, the US economy will decline, and there will be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Gamblers are more inclined towards the higher probability of these major political or economic events happening; whereas relatively niche or idealized topics like ‘Black Pope,’ ‘Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up,’ or ‘US bans TikTok’ are generally considered less likely to occur. These market-based prediction data provide us with a snapshot of public sentiment that combines data insights and humor.

Social Dimension: The Impact of Polymarket on the X Platform

Polymarket is not a freezing tool, it isX (formerly known as Twitter)The Gate.io platform is also very active, constantly releasing market trends, news briefs, and various ‘on-chain jokes.’ If you follow its official account, you will see messages such as ‘Trump’s chances of re-election hit a new high’ or ‘The odds of the next pope skyrocketing,’ with the comment section being particularly lively.Elon MuskAlso shared data from Polymarket, shocked by the scale of the bet.

With Musk’s endorsement, Polymarket immediately attracted broader attention and drew a large number of new users. This amazing spread also indicates a trend:The encrypted prediction market is entering the mainstream public opinion fieldThe team of the platform is very familiar with meme dissemination and often uses similar

“If you disagree with this odds, then prove it with your strength.”
This relaxed and provocative tone attracts interactions, firmly grabbing the social desires of encryption community users.

Abstract: Predicting the future on the chain is also a game for all.

Polymarket presents a fascinating and highly specialized world: when encryption assets, collective wisdom, and real-time data come together, “predicting the future” becomes both interesting and meaningful. From global elections, wars, economic crises, to papal elections, celebrity relationships, every transaction on Polymarket reflects the emotions of the real world.

Most importantly, prediction is not just a game, but also a way to engage in social topics. If you are interested in market trends and public events, you are free to explore.Gate.ioUnderstanding market trends and on-chain data tools, understanding more trading opportunities, participating in community interactions, seizing opportunities together in the era of information explosion.

Welcome to the world of on-chain prediction, wish you a smooth trading and accurate betting!